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地震 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 38-48.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2020.02.003

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华北块体地震活动显著增强预测效能评估

贾漯昭1, 宋美琴2, 谢健健1, 邢康1, 高家乙1   

  1. 1.河南省地震局, 河南 郑州 450016;
    2.山西省地震局, 山西 太原 030000
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-25 出版日期:2020-04-30 发布日期:2020-04-24
  • 作者简介:贾漯昭(1982-), 男, 河南郑州人, 高级工程师, 主要从事数字地震学及数值分析方面的研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2019010109)资助

Effectiveness Evaluation of Earthquake Activity Significantly Enhanced Prediction in North China

JIA Luo-zhao1, SONG Mei-qin2, XIE Jian-jian1, XING Kang1, Gao Jia-yi1   

  1. 1.Henan Earthquake Agency, Zhengzhou 450016, China;
    2.Shanxi Earthquake Agency, Taiyuan 030000, China
  • Received:2019-09-25 Online:2020-04-30 Published:2020-04-24

摘要: 研究华北块体1970年以来的13次典型6级以上地震, 通过组合地震显著增强异常指标的预测时间、 预测范围等参数, 使用Molchan、 R值等方法进行全时空扫描检测效能评估, 最终验证了地震显著增强异常地震预测指标在华北块体的适用性和最佳预报参数, 为使用该方法的震情跟踪工作提供切实依据。

关键词: 地震显著增强, 测震学异常, Molchan, R值, 效能评估

Abstract: Research 13 typical earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher in the North China block since 1970. Evaluating the effectiveness of full-time sweep detection of earthquake significantly enhanced anomaly index using Molchan and R values, research on the optimum prediction time and space parameters. Finally, the applicability of earthquake significantly enhanced anomaly index in North China Block is verified, it provides a practical basis for earthquake situation tracking using this method.

Key words: Earthquake significantly enhanced, Seismological anomaly, Molchan, R, Effectiveness evaluation

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