地震 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 203-217.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2021.04.016
• • 上一篇
张盛峰1,2, 张永仙1
收稿日期:
2021-05-20
修回日期:
2021-08-21
出版日期:
2021-10-31
发布日期:
2022-03-25
作者简介:
张盛峰(1988-),男,山东滨州人,副研究员,主要从事地震预测及统计地震学研究。
基金资助:
ZHANG Sheng-feng1,2, ZHANG Yong-xian1
Received:
2021-05-20
Revised:
2021-08-21
Online:
2021-10-31
Published:
2022-03-25
摘要: 20世纪90年代由世界多个国家的地震学家围绕“地震可否预测”问题进行国际讨论后, 人们开始思考适用于地震预测研究的规则应该有哪些, 尤其是地震学家针对地震预测研究中所采取的途径和工作思路开始发生了变化。 2007年开始的“区域地震似然模型”(Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, RELM)工作组和由此进一步而来的“地震可预测性国际合作研究”(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, CSEP)计划开始之后, 一大批地震预测模型和与评估其预测效能有关的统计检验方法加入进来, 在设立相同的预测规则和使用统一的数据来源下, 通过全球设立不同测试中心的方式, 共同参与到对地震可预测性问题的系统研究中来。 当前, CSEP计划已由开始的1.0阶段发展至2.0阶段, 为使读者了解与这几项国际合作研究相关的工作主旨和发展历程, 本文总结了与CSEP工作1.0阶段相关的工作理念和工作成果以及存在的问题, 以期为下一步工作的开展提供参考。
中图分类号:
张盛峰, 张永仙. “地震可预测性国际合作研究”—1.0阶段工作理念及成果[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 203-217.
ZHANG Sheng-feng, ZHANG Yong-xian. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability —Working Philosophy and Achievements of CSEP1.0[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(4): 203-217.
[1] Wyss M. Cannot earthquakes be predicted?[J]. Science, 1977, 278(5337): 487-490. [2] Geller R J. Earthquakes: Thinking about the unpredictable[J]. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 1997, 78(6): 63-67. [3] 吴忠良, 陈运泰. 地震预测与统计物理[J]. 物理, 2002, 31(6): 365-371. WU Zhong-liang, CHEN Yun-tai. Earthquake prediction and statistical physics[J]. Physics, 2002, 31(6): 365-371 (in Chinese). [4] 吴忠良, 蒋长胜. 统计预测、 经验预测、 物理预测近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示[J]. 中国地震, 2007, 23(3): 211-214. WU Zhong-liang, JIANG Chang-sheng. “Statistical”, “Empirical”, and “Physical”: Approaches to earthquake forecast/prediction in recent years and their implications[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 2007, 23(3): 211-224 (in Chinese). [5] 陈运泰. 地震预测: 回顾与展望[J]. 中国科学(D辑), 2009, 39(12): 1633-1658. CHEN Yun-tai. Earthquake prediction: Retrospect and prospect[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2009, 39(12): 1633-1658 (in Chinese). [6] Schorlemmer D, Werner M J, Marzocchi W, et al. The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability: Achievements and priorities[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2018, 89(4): 1305-1313. [7] Schorlemmer D, Zechar J D, Werner M J, et al. First results of the regional earthquake likelihood models experiment[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2010, 167(8-9): 859-876. [8] 蒋长胜, 赵祎喆. 地震可预测性研究的CSEP计划及其启示[J]. 地震地磁观测与研究, 2009, 30(5): 34-40. JIANG Chang-sheng, ZHAO Yi-zhe. Earthquake predictability study: The CSEP project and its significance[J]. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research, 2009, 30(5): 34-40 (in Chinese). [9] Field E H. Overview of the working group for the development of regional earthquake likelihood models (RELM)[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 7-16. [10] Frankel A D, Petersen M D, Mueller C S, et al. Documentation for the 2002 update of the national seismic hazard maps[R]. 2002. Open-File Report. USGS Publications Warehouse. [11] Petersen M D, Cao T Q, Campbell K W, et al. Time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard assessment for the state of california: Uniform california earthquake rupture forecast model 1.0[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 99-109. [12] Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, Rong Y F. A testable five-year forecast of moderate and large earthquakes in southern california based on smoothed seismicity[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 94-98. [13] Kagan Y Y, Jackson D D. Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1994, 99(B7): 13685-13700. [14] Wiemer S, Schorlemmer D. ALM: An asperity-based likelihood model for california[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 134-140. [15] Holliday J R, Chen C C, Tiampo K F, et al. A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 87-93. [16] Shen Z K, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y. Implications of geodetic strain rate for future earthquakes, with a five-year forecast of M5 earthquakes in southern California[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 116-120. [17] Bird P, Liu Z. Seismic hazard inferred from tectonics: California[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 37-48. [18] Ward S N. Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around California[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 121-133. [19] Gerstenberger M C, Wiemer S, Jones L M, et al. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California[J]. Nature, 2005, 435(7040): 328-331. [20] Gerstenberger M C, Jones L M, Wiemer S. Short-term aftershock probabilities: Case studies in California[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 66-77. [21] Console R, Murru M, Catalli F, et al. Real time forecasts through an earthquake clustering model constrained by the rate-and-state constitutive law: Comparison with a purely stochastic ETAS model[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 49-56. [22] Rhoades D A. Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in southern California[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 110-115. [23] Ebel J E, Chambers D W, Kafka A L, et al. Non-poissonian earthquake clustering and the hidden Markov model as bases for earthquake forecasting in California[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 57-65. [24] Jordan T H. Earthquake predictability, brick by brick[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2006, 77(1): 3-6. [25] Helmstetter A, Kagan Y Y, Jackson D D. High-resolution time-independent grid-based forecast for M≥5 earthquakes in California[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 78-86. [26] Schorlemmer D, Gerstenberger M C. RELM testing center[J]. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78(1): 30-36. [27] Kagan Y Y, Jackson D D. New seismic gap hypothesis: Five years after[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1995, 100(B3): 3943-3959. [28] Schorlemmer D, Gerstenberger M C, Wiemer S, et al. Earthquake likelihood model testing[J]. Seismological Research letters, 2007, 78: 17-29. [29] Molchan G M. Structure of optimal strategies in earthquake prediction[J]. Tectonophysics, 1991, 193(4): 267-276. [30] Molchan G M, Dmitrieva O E, Rotwain I M, et al. Statistical analysis of the results of earthquake prediction, based on bursts of aftershocks[J]. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1990, 61(1-2): 128-139. [31] Zechar J D, Jordan T H. The area skill score statistic for evaluating earthquake predictability experiments[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2010, 167(8-9): 893-906. [32] Zechar J D, Jordan T H. Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions[J]. Geophysical Journal International, 2008, 172(2): 715-724. [33] Swets J A. The relative operating characteristic in psychology: A technique for isolating effects of response bias finds wide use in the study of perception and cognition[J]. Science, 1973, 182(4116): 990-1000. [34] Molchan G M. Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1997, 149(1): 233-247. [35] Jordan T H, Liukis M, Werner M J, et al. Recent achievements of the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability[C]. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2016, S21A-2684. [36] 张盛峰. “地震可预测性合作研究”计划(CSEP)南北地震带试验区地震活动的一些统计地震学特征及其在地震预测中的应用[D]. 北京: 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 2015. ZHANG Sheng-feng. Statistical-seismological features of seismicity in the CSEP testing region of the central China South-North seismic zone with implications for earthquake predictability[D]. Beijing: Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, 2015 (in Chinese). [37] 韩立波, 蒋长胜, 李艳娥, 等. 用于地震可预测性CSEP计划的南北地震带地区地震最小完整性震级Mc研究[J]. 地震, 2012, 32(1): 17-27. HAN Li-bo, JIANG Chang-sheng, LI Yan-e, et al. Minimum magnitude of completeness in the North-South seismic belt for collaboratory study of earthquake predictability[J]. Earthquake, 2012, 32(1): 17-27 (in Chinese). [38] Jiang C S, Wu Z L. Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region[J]. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 2008, 51(10): 1401-1410. [39] Jiang C S, Wu Z L. PI forecast for the Sichuan-Yunnan region: Retrospective test after the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2010, 167(6-7): 751-761. [40] Zhang Y X, Zhang X T, Yin X C, et al. Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China[J]. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 2010, 22(12): 1559-1568. [41] Jiang C S, Wu Z L. PI forecast with or without de-clustering: An experiment for the Sichuan-Yunnan region[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2011, 11(3): 697-706. [42] Zhang Y X, Zhang X T, Wu Y J, et al. Retrospective study on the predictability of pattern informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 earthquakes[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2013, 170(1-2): 197-208. [43] Zhang S F, Wu Z L, Jiang C S. The central China North-South seismic belt: Seismicity, ergodicity, and five-year PI forecast in testing[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2016, 173(1): 245-254. [44] Zhang S F, Wu Z L, Jiang C S. Reducing false alarms of annual forecast in the central China North-South seismic belt by reverse tracing of precursors (RTP) using the pattern informatics (PI) ‘Hotspots’[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2017, 174(6): 2401-2410. [45] Zhang Y X, Xia C Y, Song C, et al. Test of the predictability of the PI method for recent large earthquakes in and near Tibetan plateau[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2017, 174(6): 2411-2426. [46] 张盛峰, 张永仙, 蒋长胜. CSEP混合地震预测模型研究进展及启示意义[J]. 国际地震动态, 2017(3): 3-8. ZHANG Sheng-feng, ZHANG Yong-xian, JIANG Chang-sheng. The latest research and implication of hybrid earthquake forecasting models[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology, 2017(3): 3-8 (in Chinese). [47] 蒋长胜, 张浪平, 韩立波, 等. 中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法Ⅰ: Molchan图表法[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(2): 106-113. JIANG Chang-sheng, ZHANG Lang-ping, HAN Li-bo, et al. Probabilistic forecasting method of Long-term and Intermediate-term seismic hazard I: Molchan error diagram[J]. Earthquake, 2011, 31(2): 106-113 (in Chinese). [48] 高朝军, 蒋长胜, 韩立波, 等. 中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法Ⅱ: N-test和L-test方法[J]. 地震, 2013, 33(1): 47-55. GAO Chao-jun, JIANG Chang-sheng, HAN Li-bo, et al. Statistical test methods of intermediate-term and long-term probabilistic forecasting Ⅱ: N-test and L-test method[J]. Earthquake, 2013, 33(1): 47-55 (in Chinese). |
[1] | 王芃, 邵志刚, 石富强, 尹晓菲. 中国大陆强震时空分布特征及2021年玛多7.4级地震后趋势分析[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 1-14. |
[2] | 李莹, 高原. 青藏高原东南缘地质构造基本形态与地震各向异性基本特征[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 15-45. |
[3] | 佘雅文, 吴伟伟, 刘泰, 付广裕. 地球模型对季节性负荷形变计算的影响以川滇地区为例[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 46-56. |
[4] | 金阳, 金红林, 高原, 黄星. 基于GNSS数据的三种应变计算方法在青藏高原东南缘地区的应用[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 57-67. |
[5] | 廖晓峰, 樊文杰, 邱桂兰, 李雪浩, 杨鹏. 2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震前地磁垂直强度极化短期异常特征分析[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 68-77. |
[6] | 杨帆, 盛书中, 胡晓辉, 崔华伟. 2020年云南巧家M5.0地震震源机制解与震源区应力场研究[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 93-105. |
[7] | 陈伟, 刘泰, 佘雅文, 付广裕. 利用同震和震后位移数据联合反演2011年日本MW9.0地震同震断层滑动[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 121-135. |
[8] | 夏暖, 吴子泉, 付俊东, 张建民, 王冬雷, 彭刘亚. 浅层地震反射和折射层析成像在海州—韩山断裂探测中的联合应用[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 136-147. |
[9] | 王洪体, 崔仁胜, 叶鹏, 王宏远, 李丽娟. 高可靠深井地震计输出符合性检验[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 148-157. |
[10] | 肖武军, 赵楠, 李小军, 赵刚, 刘泉, 曲利, 骆佳骥. 地震台站标准化中地震计防震加固装置试验分析[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 158-167. |
[11] | 龚丽文, 陈丽娟, 吕品姬, 张燕, 郭卫英, 肖家强. 黔江台水管仪与垂直摆预报效能对比分析[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 168-179. |
[12] | 杨小林, 杨锦玲. 华东地区钻孔体应变对飑线天气过程响应的特征与机制[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 180-191. |
[13] | 缪阿丽, 李锋, 王俊, 祝涛, 叶碧文. 2018年安徽无为ML4.1地震地下流体前兆异常特征[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 192-202. |
[14] | 周连庆, 赵翠萍, 张捷, 车时. 中国地震科学实验场人工智能实时地震监测分析系统的应用与展望[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(3): 1-21. |
[15] | 常金龙, 甘卫军, 孟令升, 朱成林, 刘俊清. GPS应变场云图方法识别地震形变场异常初步分析[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(3): 22-31. |
阅读次数 | ||||||
全文 |
|
|||||
摘要 |
|
|||||