中国大陆地震灾害分区人员死亡评估模型研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2022.01.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对现阶段地震人员死亡评估模型在评估特定区域地震时评估结果误差较大的问题, 结合中国地震灾害特点、人口分布情况等, 将中国大陆划分为西北、西南和大陆东部三个地区, 并对各区域按照人口密度进行分级。采用多元非线性回归方法, 选取震中烈度、震区面积、抗震设防烈度参数建立分区域的地震灾害人员死亡评估模型。研究结果表明, 该模型在西北、西南地区的验证结果较好, 适用于中国地震灾害情况, 可以用于震后快速盲评估, 在一定程度上能够避免评估不同震级、相同震中烈度和人口密度的地震时, 出现相同结果的情况; 虽然该模型在震例较少的大陆东部地区以及城市直下型地震中评估结果需要进一步改进, 但为解决特定区域地震死亡评估中误差较大问题提供了思路, 能够为震后应急指挥和救援提供数据参考。

关键词: 地震灾害, 人员死亡评估模型, 分区, 人口密度分级

Abstract: Addressing the large errors in the results of current seismic mortality assessment models in specific regions, the region of Chinese mainland has been zoned as three regions based on seismic hazard characteristics and population distribution, which are northwest region, southwest region as well as eastern region, each region is graded according to population density. The parameters of intensity at the epicenter, seismic area, and seismic fortification intensity were selected, and the multiple non-linear regression method was used to establish a regional model for earthquake mortality assessment. The results show that the models have good validation results in northwest and southwest regions, and could be used for rapid post-earthquake blind assessment. To a certain extent, it can avoid the situation that the evaluation results are the same when calculating earthquakes with different magnitudes, the same epicenter intensity and population density. Although the model needs to be further improved in the eastern part of the country, where there are fewer earthquakes, and in urban direct-downfall earthquakes, it provides ideas for solving the problem of large errors in the assessment of earthquake mortality in specific regions, and can provide data reference for post-earthquake emergency command and rescue.

Key words: Seismic hazards, Human mortality assessment model, Sub-region, Population density rating

中图分类号:

P315.7

亓凤娇, 李雯, 苏鹤军, 陈文凯, 王紫荆, 苏浩然. 中国大陆地震灾害分区人员死亡评估模型研究[J]. 地震, 2022, 42(1): 70-84.

QI Feng-jiao, LI Wen, SU He-jun, CHEN Wen-kai, WANG Zi-jing, SU Hao-ran. Study on the Regional Assessment Models for the Mortalies Caused by Earthquakes in the Chinese Mainland[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2022, 42(1): 70-84.

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