巴颜喀拉地块及其周边地震危险性分析

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2021.03.011

Abstract

Abstract: Bayankala block and its surroundings have become the important target area because of the frequent earthquake activities. The largest earthquake magnitude is one of the basic parameters in regional seismicity descriptions. It is widely used in seismic risk analysis research. In this paper, we carry out the extreme statistical analysis on Bayankala block and its surroundings using the generalized extreme value distribution. We get the estimation of GEV distribution parameters. Then the recurrence level, the average recurrence period of the earthquakes, the probability of earthquake occurrence and the magnitude of the danger are calculated. We compare the quantile of a level 0.99 for extreme value distribution, the theoretic maximum magnitude from G-R relation and historical maximum magnitude. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to verify the stability of the extreme value statistical analysis using the GEV distribution. According to calculation, the average recurrence period of magnitude 6.0 is 1.8 years, and the recurrence period of magnitude 8.0 is only 76.8 years. The 100-year reproduction level is as high as 8.08. In addition, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 to 7.0 in this block is relatively high, which indicate that the block will still active in the future. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the use of GEV distribution to explore the seismic hazard of this block is stable to a certain extent.

Key words: Bayankala block, Generalized extreme value distribution, Recurrence level, Seismic risk

CLC Number:

P315.7

REN Qing-qing, LU Li-na, QIAN Xiao-shi, ZHAO Yi-bin. Earthquake Hazard Analysis of the Bayankala Block and Its Surroundings[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(3): 144-156.

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Earthquake Hazard Analysis of the Bayankala Block and Its Surroundings

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