逻辑树在辽宁地区地震危险性分析中的应用

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2022.03.008

Abstract

Abstract: The main basis of earthquake prediction research is the abnormal changes of various seismic information observed before the earthquake. The more abnormal changes, the more complete the available information for seismic risk research. However, more and more different anomalies are inconsistent with the seismic risk judgment results, increasing the complexity of comprehensive analysis. In this paper, taking Liaoning region as the research area, the logic tree method is introduced, and the seismic risk logic tree model is established according to the long, medium, short and imminent time scales of the earthquake preparation process. Then we scan the whole region to obtain the relative probability distribution of seismic risk in Liaoning and the distribution of seismic risk index in Liaoning. The introduction of logic tree method quantifies the comprehensive influence of anomalies on regional seismic risk, and simplifies the analysis process. The Xiuyan M5.4 earthquake in 1999 and the Dengta M5.1 earthquake in 2013 were analyzed as typical examples, the results showed that if we could collect more earthquake anomalies, and the influence time of the anomalies were more accurate, then we would get more accurate earthquake prediction results.

Key words: Seismic risk, Characteristics of uncertainty, Seismic anomalies, Logic tree method

CLC Number:

P315.7

WANG Yan, SHAO Yuan-yuan, ZHANG Bo, GUO Xiao-yan, ZHAI Li-na, YANG Shi-chao. Application of Logic Tree in Seismic Risk Analysis of Liaoning Province[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2022, 42(3): 111-123.

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Application of Logic Tree in Seismic Risk Analysis of Liaoning Province

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