Abstract: Abstract: Based on the previous earthquake prediction methods, we put forward a synthetical method of earthquake prediction. First, the dynamic image (including seismogenic gap and seismogenic belt) is used to confirm potential seismic dangerous zone approximately. Then a certain seismogenic zone is determined using coulomb stress infered from moderately strong earthquakes. Finally, ARM model and growing correlation length model are applied to judge whether the seismogenic zone is changed into critical state or not. In forecasting seismic three facts, the particular advantages of typical seismographic forecasting methods is exploited; in order to gain more credible forecasting result, the small correlated method has been intercompared and verified. This article studied Heze 5.9 earthquake, happened in 1983, using this synthetical method. The result shows that the forecasting result observed synthetical method is basically consistent to Heze earthquake.

Key words: Seismogenic gap, Seismogenic belt, Correlation length, Heze earthquake