华北地区地震空区的统计分析

Abstract

Abstract: The seismic gaps in North China from 1970 to 2017 are analyzed using the unified identification criteria. The result shows that seismic gap before M≥5.0 earthquakes is 36.7% in North China. The relationship between the duration time of M≥3.0 earthquake has a certain linear positive correlation with the magnitude of main shock. However, the long axis scale, the initial magnitude and the main-shock magnitude don't have obvious linear relationship. The accuracy rate of seismic gap is 0.76, the false rate is 0.24, the missing rate is 0.60, and the R value is 0.32. R value is higher than R₀ value with 97.5% confidence level. It indicates that the prediction method of seismic gap has certain forecast capability in North China.

Key words: Seismic gap, North China, M≥5.0 earthquakes

CLC Number:

P315.7

WANG Xia, SONG Mei-qin, CHEN Hui. Statistical Analysis of Seismic Gap in North China[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2019, 39(3): 187-195.

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Statistical Analysis of Seismic Gap in North China

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