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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 181-196.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.01.012

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Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Unofficial Earthquake Prediction Opinions Related to Sichuan Province since 2016

RAN Xi-yang, WANG Di, ZHAO Min, HE Chang, LONG Feng   

  1. Sichuan Earthquake Agency, Chengdu 610041, China
  • Received:2023-09-11 Accepted:2024-05-07 Published:2025-04-15

Abstract: Short term earthquake prediction is both a focus and challenge in earthquake research. Due to the incomplete understanding of the mechanism of earthquake occurrence, which involves multiple disciplines such as crustal movement, rock mechanics, and geophysics, studying short-term earthquake prediction is also a challenge and exploration for these scientific problems. Submitting earthquake short-term prediction cards to the earthquake management department is an important way to participate in earthquake short-term prediction work. In order to analyze the effectiveness of earthquake short-term prediction cards and accumulate experience in earthquake short-term prediction, this article systematically compiles the prediction cards related to Sichuan region from January 2016 to June 2023, briefly describes the basis for important prediction opinions, and discusses the improvement method of earthquake prediction card disposal process, to provide reference for earthquake short-term prediction work.

Key words: Short term earthquake prediction card, Sichuan earthquake, Earthquake prediction, Unofficial earthquake prediction opinions

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