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EARTHQUAKE ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 33-40.

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BAYES DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION TO SHORT AND IMMINENT EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Wang Xiaqing1), Shi Shaoxian2), Ding Xiang1)   

  1. 1)Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China;
    2)Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650041, China
  • Received:1998-06-17 Revised:1998-07-06 Online:1999-01-31 Published:2022-09-19

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Abstract: A Bayes discriminant analysis is developed in the paper, in which the threshold of classifi­cation can be determined according to the risk level we take. The method is available in earth­quake forecast with a variety of time scales. An example which shows good results of short term and imminent earthquake forecast with Radon data observed in Yunnan during 1994~ 1997 is also given in the paper.

Key words: Radon anomaly, Short term and imminent earthquake forecast, X2 statistical test, Bayes discriminant analysis