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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 13-30.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.002

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Comparative Research of the 2016 MS6.4 and 2022 MS6.9 Earthquakes in Menyuan Based on the z-Value and PI Method

SONG Cheng1, ZHANG Yong-xian2, BI Jin-meng1, XU Ke1, GAO Ye1, ZHANG Ming-dong1, XIA Cai-yun3, TIAN Wei-xi4, FENG Mao-ning2   

  1. 1. Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin 300201, China;
    2. Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;
    3. Liaoning Earthquake Agency, Shenyang 110031, China;
    4. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2024-04-10 Revised:2024-09-03 Online:2025-07-31 Published:2025-10-23

Abstract: In this paper, two earthquakes, Menyuan MS6.4 in 2016 and Menyuan MS6.9 in 2022, were taken as research objects to conduct a comparative study on the change of regional seismic activity characteristics based on the seismic activity rate (z-value) and Pattern Informatics (PI) method. The results show that: ① z-value spatial scanning images obtained with different parameter models reflect the common feature of “abnormal seismic quiescence” in a large area around the epicenters of both earthquakes in the 6 a period before the Menyuan earthquakes. ② At the 1.0°×1.0° grid scale, based on different time window lengths, there are PI hotspots in the epicenter and Moore's adjacent grid of the two earthquakes, which are strong indicative function of the epicenters. Compared with the Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake, the hotspots associated with the 2016 Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake is more effective. ③ The combination of the spatial distribution of z-values and PI hotspots as well as the regional fault can narrow the forecast range of epicenter location of strong earthquakes further. The above study is of reference significance for summary of strong earthquake activity characteristics and the analysis of seismic activity trend at the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet block.

Key words: The 2022 Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake, The 2016 Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake, PI method, z-value, Comparative research

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