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地震 ›› 2006, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 35-39.

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2020年前中国大陆发生7级以上大地震频次和最大震级预测的初步研究

傅征祥, 丁香, 王晓青   

  1. 中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036
  • 收稿日期:2005-03-11 修回日期:2005-06-27 发布日期:2021-11-01
  • 作者简介:傅征祥(1941-), 男, 上海市人, 研究员, 主要从事地震活动和地震预报等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学技术部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2004DIA3J010); 中国地震局“2006～2020年中国地震重点监视防御区确定”专项资助

A preliminary study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of great earthquakes (MS≥7.0) before 2020 in china's continent

FU Zheng-xiang, DING Xiang, WANG Xiao-qing   

  1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2005-03-11 Revised:2005-06-27 Published:2021-11-01

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摘要： 应用多重贝努利独立试验模型, 研究2006～2020年间大陆发生7级以上大地震的频次及其概率, 以及最大震级的预测问题。 研究结果表明, 2006~2020年间大陆发生7.0～7.9级和7.5～7.9级大地震1次以上的概率为1.00, 发生8级大地震1次以上的概率为0.67, 或者说其间肯定会发生7级大地震, 而发生10次7.0～7.9级和1次7.5～7.9级大地震的可能性最大。 若按超过概率水平0.10而论, 发生7.0～7.9级地震最少发生 8次, 最多发生 12次; 发生7.5～7.9级地震为1～4次, 发生1～2次8.0～8.9级大地震可能性最大。 2020年前中国大陆发生最大地震的震级可能为7.5~7.9级。 不排除发生 8级地震的可能。

关键词: 中国大陆, 2020年前, 强震频次, 最大震级预测

Abstract: A study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of great earthquakes (MS≥7.0) before 2020 in China's continent has been down by using n-multi Bernoulli model of independence test. The results show that the occurrence probability of earthquakes with MS=7.0~7.9 and MS=7.5~7.9 are 1.0; the occurrence probability of earthquakes with MS≥8.0 is 0.67 before 2020 in China's continent. According to the preceding probability level of 0.10, numbers of earthquakes with MS=7.0~7.9, MS=7.5~7.9 and MS≥8.0 would range from 8 to 12, 1 to 4 and 1 to 2, respectively. Therefore, the maximum magnitude of great earthquakes would be 7.5~7.9, and it doesn't exclude the possibility of earthquake occurrence with MS≥8.0 before 2020 in China's continent.

Key words: China's continent, Before 2020, Prediction of great earthquake numbers, Maximum magnitude prediction of great earthquake

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