基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次MS≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.02.008

地震 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 120-134.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.02.008

基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次M_S≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究

宋程¹, 张永仙², 夏彩韵³, 毕金孟¹, 张小涛⁴, 吴永加⁴, 徐小远¹

1.天津市地震局, 天津 300201;
2.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
3.辽宁省地震局, 沈阳 110031;
4.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045

收稿日期:2023-12-15 修回日期:2024-03-13 出版日期:2024-04-30 发布日期:2024-04-28
通讯作者: 张永仙, 研究员。 E-mail: yxzhseis@sina.com
作者简介:宋程(1992-), 女, 黑龙江牡丹江人, 工程师, 主要从事地震活动监测、地震预报研究。
基金资助:
天津市自然科学基金青年项目(22JCQNJC01070); 天津市地震局重点科研项目(Zd202402, Zd202304); 地震科技星火计划项目(XH24005YA); 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010111)

Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three M_S≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method

SONG Cheng¹, ZHANG Yong-xian², XIA Cai-yun³, BI Jin-meng¹, ZHANG Xiao-tao⁴, WU Yong-jia⁴, XU Xiao-yuan¹

1. Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin 300201, China;
2. Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;
3. Liaoning Earthquake Agency, Shenyang 110031, China;
4. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China

Received:2023-12-15 Revised:2024-03-13 Online:2024-04-30 Published:2024-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文应用图像信息(PI)方法对2023年山东平原M_S5.5地震、 2021年江苏大丰海域M_S5.0地震和2020年河北古冶M_S5.1地震进行了回溯性预测研究。以华北局部(32°N~42°N, 114°E~122°E)为研究区域, 在网格尺度分别为0.5°×0.5°和1.0°×1.0°且预测窗长为5 a的两组参数模型下, 获取2019—2027年逐年滑动的预测窗热点演化图像。结果显示, 当网格尺度为1.0°×1.0°时, PI热点效果优于0.5°×0.5°网格, 且对平原地震和大丰海域地震的发震位置指示作用较好。当时间窗长和归一化阈值绝对值同时增大, 个别窗口存在古冶地震的有效热点, 但未找到热点能同时覆盖3个地震震中所在网格的参数模型。不同参数模型下的PI热点显示, 未来3~4 a郯庐断裂带渤海段存在发生M_S≥5.0地震的风险。本文研究结果对于华北局部地区M_S≥5.0地震危险性分析具有一定的参考意义。

关键词: 2023年平原M_S5.5地震, 2021年大丰海域M_S5.0地震, 2020年古冶M_S5.1地震, 图像信息方法, 热点迁移

Abstract: In this paper, the local area of North China (32°N~42°N, 114°E~122°E) was chosen as studied region. Regarding the 2023 Shandong Pingyuan M_S5.5 earthquake, 2021 Dafeng Sea area M_S5.0 earthquake and 2020 Hebei Guye M_S5.1 earthquake as the target earthquakes, the Pattern Informatics (PI) method was applied to the retrospective research on the forecasting seismic activity risk of the three earthquakes. With parameters of forecasting window length 5 years and grid size 0.5°×0.5°/1.0°×1.0°, the period from 2019 to 2027 of successive hotspot forecasting window images sliding year by year were obtained. The results show that PI hotspot effect with the grid size 1.0°×1.0 ° is better than 0.5°×0.5°. And it has a good indication effect on the location of Pingyuan and Dafeng sea area earthquakes. When the time window length and the absolute value of the normalization threshold increasing, only a few windows have effective hotspots for the Guye earthquake. But no parameter model that can simultaneously cover the epicenter grid of the three earthquakes has been found. There is a risk of M_S≥5.0 earthquake in the Bohai Rim region of the Tan-Lu fault zone in the following 3~4 years, which the PI hotspots under different parameter models indicating. The results of this paper can provide certain reference significance about seismic hazard analysis of M_S≥5.0 earthquake for local area of North China.

Key words: The 2023 Pingyuan M_S5.5 earthquake, The 2021 Dafeng sea area M_S5.0 earthquake, The 2020 Guye M_S5.1 earthquake, Pattern informatics method, Hotspot migration

中图分类号:

P315.7

宋程, 张永仙, 夏彩韵, 毕金孟, 张小涛, 吴永加, 徐小远. 基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次M_S≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究[J]. 地震, 2024, 44(2): 120-134.

SONG Cheng, ZHANG Yong-xian, XIA Cai-yun, BI Jin-meng, ZHANG Xiao-tao, WU Yong-jia, XU Xiao-yuan. Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three M_S≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(2): 120-134.

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基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次M_S≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究

Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three M_S≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method

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[1]	宋程, 张永仙, 夏彩韵, 张小涛. 2008年汶川M_S8.0地震电离层图像信息长时程演化初探[J]. 地震, 2019, 39(2): 135-146.
[2]	宋程,张永仙,夏彩韵,吴永加. 基于图像信息方法的日本东北M_W9.0地震回溯性预测研究[J]. 地震, 2017, 37(2): 47-56.

基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次MS≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究

Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three MS≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method

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基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次M_S≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究

Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three M_S≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method