“霍山地震窗”小震检测及其在地震预测中的应用

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.02.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 安徽霍山地震窗作为地震预测效能评价较好的指标(R>R₀, R=0.26, R₀=0.204), 对安徽及邻区震情形势研判具有重要作用。历史震例总结显示, 当霍山地震窗3个月内M_L≥1.0地震累计频次超过40次时, 出现开窗异常, 该异常对未来一年内地震窗中心点周边100 km范围内的M_S3.5地震、 250 km范围内的M_S4.0地震、 500 km范围内的M_S5.0地震、 500 km以外的M_S6.0及以上地震具有预测意义。自1970年以来, 使用该指标漏报地震7次, 其中, 在2018年河南固始M_S3.6地震与2019年湖北应城M_S4.9地震发震前, 霍山地震窗区域内小震活动增强, 并且3个月内M_L≥1.0地震累计频次接近异常阈值。霍山地震窗区域内小震密集, 可能存在小震波形相互交叠干扰而无法被识别的情况。本研究利用匹配定位(M&L)法对2017年4月与2019年4—9月霍山地震窗区域的小震进行检测, 以获取更为完整的地震目录, 并重新分析了霍山地震窗的预报效能。研究结果表明, 基于小震检测后更为完整的地震目录, 霍山地震窗开窗异常未漏报2018年河南固始M_S3.6地震与2019年湖北应城M_S4.9地震, 计算得到R>R₀(R=0.30, R₀=0.196), 该项异常对应地震优势发震时间为开窗后9个月内。本研究说明M&L法在霍山地震窗小震检测中具有实用性, 可在后续霍山地震窗跟踪中作为一种常规的处理方法, 以期获取更为完整的小震目录, 为震情跟踪研判提供数据支撑。

关键词: 霍山地震窗, 小震检测, 累计频次, 地震预测

Abstract: The Huoshan seismic window in Anhui Province, as an index of well-evaluated earthquake prediction efficiency, with R>R0 (R=0.26, R₀=0.204), plays an important role in the study of earthquake situation in Anhui and its neighboring areas. The summary of historical earthquake cases shows that when earthquakes M_L≥1.0 cumulative frequency within three months in Huoshan seismic window exceeds 40, the window opening anomaly appears, which has predictive significance for the earthquakes of M_S3.5 within 100 km, M_S4.0 within 250 km, M_S5.0 within 500 km and M_S6.0 or above beyond 500 km in the next year. Since 1970, only 7 earthquakes have been missed by this index, including the 2018 Henan Gushi Ms3.6 and 2019 Hubei Yingcheng Ms4.9 earthquakes before which small earthquakes in Huoshan seismic window area were enhanced and earthquakes M_L≥1.0 cumulative frequency within three months was close to the anomaly threshold. Small earthquakes are dense in Huoshan seismic window area, and there may be overlapping interference of waveforms lead to many identified earthquakes. Match and Locate (M&L) method was applied to detect small earthquakes in Huoshan seismic window during April 2017 and April to September 2019, so as to obtain a more complete earthquake catalog and re-analyze the prediction efficiency of Huoshan seismic window. The result shows that, based on the more complete earthquake catalog after detection, the Huoshan seismic window anomaly has not missed the 2018 Henan Gushi M_S3.6 earthquake and 2019 Hubei Yingcheng M_S4.9 earthquake, with R>R0 (R=0.30, R₀=0.196), and the dominant occurrence time of the earthquake corresponding to this anomaly is in 9 months. The development of this research indicates that the M&L method is practical in the small earthquake detection of Huoshan seismic window and can be applied as a conventional processing method in the subsequent study of Huoshan seismic window, to obtain a more complete earthquake catalog and provide data support for earthquake prediction study.

Key words: Huoshan seismic window, Small earthquakes detection, Cumulative frequency, Earthquake prediction

中图分类号:

P315.5

汪小厉, 周冬瑞, 李玲利, 张炳, 柳建, 李军辉. “霍山地震窗”小震检测及其在地震预测中的应用[J]. 地震, 2024, 44(2): 135-146.

WANG Xiao-li, ZHOU Dong-rui, LI Ling-li, ZHANG Bing, LIU Jian, LI Jun-hui. Small Earthquake Detection in Huoshan Seismic Window and Its Application in Earthquake Prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(2): 135-146.

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