Morlet小波变换在2020年新疆于田6.4级地震预测中的应用研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2021.02.008

地震 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 102-112.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2021.02.008

Morlet小波变换在2020年新疆于田6.4级地震预测中的应用研究

薛艳, 宋治平, 姜祥华, 张小涛

中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045

收稿日期:2020-07-21 修回日期:2020-10-16 出版日期:2021-04-30 发布日期:2021-08-06
作者简介:薛艳(1969-), 女, 北京市人, 正研级高工, 主要从事地震预测研究。
基金资助:
中国和美国政府间合作项目(2018YFE0109700)和震情跟踪项目(2021020510)

Application of Morlet Wavelet Transform in Forecasting Process of Yutian M_S6.4 Earthquake in 2020

XUE Yan, SONG Zhi-ping, JIANG Xiang-hua, ZHANG Xiao-tao

China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China

Received:2020-07-21 Revised:2020-10-16 Online:2021-04-30 Published:2021-08-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在新疆和田至西藏日土6.0级左右年度地震重点危险区内部, 中期(年度)预测正确, 其中核心依据之一为该地区6级以上地震准周期特征。 Morlet小波变换定量计算显示11.7年、 5.8年和79.5年为主要周期成分, 其中11.7年和5.8年周期通过了90%置信度检验, 具有显著性。本文在回顾于田6.4级地震前地震活动准周期特征基础上, 进一步讨论了区域范围、计算参数、时间序列长度对周期谱稳定性的影响和小波变换在地震预测中的应用等问题。

关键词: 于田6.4级地震, Morlet小波变换, 周期谱

Abstract: The Yutian M_S6.4 earthquake on June 26, 2020 in Xingjiang, China, occurred in the 2020 annual earthquake risk areas, and the medium-term forecasting is correct. One of the main basis is the quasi periodic characteristic of earthquakes with M_S≥6.0 in this area. The quantitative calculation by the Morlet wavelet transform showed that 11.7-year, 5.8-year and 79.5-year are the mainperiods, in which the former passed 90% confidence test, are the main periodic components. In this paper, we reviewed the characteristics of seismicity periodic spectrum before the M_S6.4 earthquake, discussed the effects of study region range, different parameters and different length of time series on the result stability of Morlet wavelet transform and its application in earthquake forecasting.

Key words: The Yutian M_S6.4 earthquake, Morlet wavelet transform, Periodic spectrum

中图分类号:

P315.7

薛艳, 宋治平, 姜祥华, 张小涛. Morlet小波变换在2020年新疆于田6.4级地震预测中的应用研究[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(2): 102-112.

XUE Yan, SONG Zhi-ping, JIANG Xiang-hua, ZHANG Xiao-tao. Application of Morlet Wavelet Transform in Forecasting Process of Yutian M_S6.4 Earthquake in 2020[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(2): 102-112.

参考文献

[1] 邓起东, 高翔, 陈桂华, 等. 青藏高原昆仑—汶川地震系列与巴颜喀喇断块的最新活动[J]. 地学前缘, 2010, 17(5): 163-178.
DENG Qi-dong, GAO Xiang, CHEN Gui-hua, et al. Recent tectonic activity of Bayankala fault-block and the Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2010, 17(5): 163-178 (in Chinese).
[2] 徐锡伟, 谭锡斌, 吴国栋, 等. 2008年于田M_S7.3地震地表破裂带特征及其构造属性讨论[J]. 地震地质, 2011, 33(2): 462-471
XU Xi-wei, TAN Xi-bin, WU Guo-dong, et al. Surface rupture features of the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake and its tectonic nature[J]. Seismology and Geology, 2011, 33(2): 462-471 (in Chinese).
[3] 中国地震台网中心. 2020年度中国地震趋势研究报告(研究报告)[R]. 2019, 98-101.
China Earthquake Networks Center. Research report on earthquake trend in China in 2020[R]. 2019, 98-101 (in Chinese).
[4] 梅世蓉. 中国的地震活动性[J]. 地球物理学报, 1960, 9(1): 1-19.
MEI Shi-rong. Seismicity in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 1960, 9(1): 1-19 (in Chinese).
[5] Mogi K. Active periods in the world’s chief seismic belts[J]. Tectonophysics, 1974, 22(3/4): 265-282.
[6] 张国民, 李丽. 地震大形势预测的科学思路及未来几年我国地震形势[A]. 中国地震趋势预测研究[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1998.
ZHANG Guo-min, LI Li. Scientific thinking of earthquake tendency prediction and earthquake situation of China in the next few years[A]. Prediction research on the earthquake tendency of China[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1998 (in Chinese).
[7] Pyrak-Nolte L J, Nolte D D. Wavelet analysis of velocity dispersion of elastic interface waves propagating along a fracture[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1995, 22(11): 1329-1332.
[8] 杜兴信. 基于小波变换的动态地震活动周期分析[J]. 地震, 1997, 17(3): 257-264.
DU Xing-xin. Wavelet-based analysis of dynamic seismicity period[J]. Earthquake, 1997, 17(3): 257-264 (in Chinese).
[9] 白春华, 徐文耀. 主磁场长期变化十年至百年尺度的周期[J]. 地球物理学报, 2010, 53(4): 904-911.
BAI Chun-hua, XU Wen-yao. Multi-decadal to centennial secular variation of the main geomagnetic field[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2010, 53(4): 904-911 (in Chinese).
[10] 尹继尧, 朱元清, 宋治平, 等. Morlet小波显著性检验和精度分析在地磁场和地震活动性周期分析中的应用[J]. 地震学报, 2011, 33(5): 663-671.
YIN Ji-yao, ZHU Yuan-qing, SONG Zhi-ping, et al. Significance test and precision analysis of Morlet wavelet: Application to studying periodic variation of earthquake activity and geomagnetic field[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2011, 33(5): 663-671 (in Chinese).
[11] 邵辉成, 杜长娥, 刘志辉, 等. 中国大陆地震活动的多尺度分析[J]. 地震学报, 2004, 26(1): 102-105.
SHAO Hui-cheng, DU Chang-e, LIU Zhi-hui, et al. Multi-scale analysis of earthquake activity in Chinese Mainland[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2004, 26(1): 102-105 (in Chinese).
[12] 国家地震局震害防御司. 中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1995.
Earthquake Disaster Prevention Division of the State Seismological Bureau. Catalogue of Chinese historical strong earthquakes[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1995 (in Chinese).
[13] 中国地震局震害防御司. 中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年, M_S≥4.7)[M]. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社, 1999.
Earthquake Disaster Prevention Division of China Earthquake Administration. Catalogue of latter-day earthqakes[M]. Beijing: China Science and Technology Press, 1999 (in Chinese).
[14] 林振山, 邓自旺. 子波气候诊断技术的研究[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999.
LIN Zhen-shan, DENG Zi-wang. Study on diagnosis technology of wavelet climate[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999 (in Chinese).
[15] Torrence C, Compo G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79(1): 61-78.
[16] Gutenberg B, Richter C F. Earthquake magnitude, intensity, energy and acceleration (second paper)[J]. Seismological Society of America, 1956, 46: 105-145.
[17] Gu J C. A quantitative description of seismic activity[A]. Preceedings of international symposium on fuzzy mathematics in earthquake research[M]. Beijing, 1985.
[18] 谷继成, 魏富胜. 论地震活动性的定量化: 地震活动度[J]. 中国地震, 1987, 3(增刊): 12-22.
GU Ji-cheng, WEI Fu-sheng. The Quantinigation of seismic activity: Seismicity[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 3(S1): 12-22 (in Chinese).
[19] 黄炜琼, 李文香, 曹学峰. 中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J]. 地震学报, 1994, 16(4): 423-432.
HUANG Wei-qiong, LI Wen-xiang, CAO Xue-feng. The second study on completeness analysis of seismic data in mainland ChinaPartition distributions of initial years of seismic data[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1994, 16(4): 423-432 (in Chinese).

Morlet小波变换在2020年新疆于田6.4级地震预测中的应用研究

Application of Morlet Wavelet Transform in Forecasting Process of Yutian M_S6.4 Earthquake in 2020

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	张学民, 刘静, 熊攀, 周煜林. 2020年新疆于田6.4级地震前电离层扰动现象分析[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(2): 145-157.
[2]	尹继尧, 朱元清, 宋治平, 薛艳, 张国民, 刘杰, 梅世蓉. 中国大陆及邻区地震活动周期及显著性检验[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(1): 1-11.

Morlet小波变换在2020年新疆于田6.4级地震预测中的应用研究

Application of Morlet Wavelet Transform in Forecasting Process of Yutian MS6.4 Earthquake in 2020

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

Application of Morlet Wavelet Transform in Forecasting Process of Yutian M_S6.4 Earthquake in 2020