“霍山地震窗”小震检测及其在地震预测中的应用

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.02.009

Abstract

Abstract: The Huoshan seismic window in Anhui Province, as an index of well-evaluated earthquake prediction efficiency, with R>R0 (R=0.26, R₀=0.204), plays an important role in the study of earthquake situation in Anhui and its neighboring areas. The summary of historical earthquake cases shows that when earthquakes M_L≥1.0 cumulative frequency within three months in Huoshan seismic window exceeds 40, the window opening anomaly appears, which has predictive significance for the earthquakes of M_S3.5 within 100 km, M_S4.0 within 250 km, M_S5.0 within 500 km and M_S6.0 or above beyond 500 km in the next year. Since 1970, only 7 earthquakes have been missed by this index, including the 2018 Henan Gushi Ms3.6 and 2019 Hubei Yingcheng Ms4.9 earthquakes before which small earthquakes in Huoshan seismic window area were enhanced and earthquakes M_L≥1.0 cumulative frequency within three months was close to the anomaly threshold. Small earthquakes are dense in Huoshan seismic window area, and there may be overlapping interference of waveforms lead to many identified earthquakes. Match and Locate (M&L) method was applied to detect small earthquakes in Huoshan seismic window during April 2017 and April to September 2019, so as to obtain a more complete earthquake catalog and re-analyze the prediction efficiency of Huoshan seismic window. The result shows that, based on the more complete earthquake catalog after detection, the Huoshan seismic window anomaly has not missed the 2018 Henan Gushi M_S3.6 earthquake and 2019 Hubei Yingcheng M_S4.9 earthquake, with R>R0 (R=0.30, R₀=0.196), and the dominant occurrence time of the earthquake corresponding to this anomaly is in 9 months. The development of this research indicates that the M&L method is practical in the small earthquake detection of Huoshan seismic window and can be applied as a conventional processing method in the subsequent study of Huoshan seismic window, to obtain a more complete earthquake catalog and provide data support for earthquake prediction study.

Key words: Huoshan seismic window, Small earthquakes detection, Cumulative frequency, Earthquake prediction

CLC Number:

P315.5

WANG Xiao-li, ZHOU Dong-rui, LI Ling-li, ZHANG Bing, LIU Jian, LI Jun-hui. Small Earthquake Detection in Huoshan Seismic Window and Its Application in Earthquake Prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(2): 135-146.

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Small Earthquake Detection in Huoshan Seismic Window and Its Application in Earthquake Prediction

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