雅安地区监测井水位预测效能对比研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.03.014

Abstract

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of discriminating the seismic response of monitoring well water levels and enhance prediction efficiency, this paper conducts a comparative study using different methods on the seismic response of water level in 6 monitoring wells near two faults in the Ya’an area. First, the difference method is used to process and analyze the water level data. Then, the water level data is combined with two parameters of regional seismic activity (energy level and maximum magnitude) to analyze the relationship between regional seismic activity and water level fluctuations. Subsequently, the combined sequence was analyzed and processed in both the time domain and frequency domain. Finally, the prediction efficiency of five methods were tested using the Molchan chart method, and the optimal processing method and the monitoring well with the best prediction efficiency near the faults was identified. The results show that the combination of water level and seismic activity parameters has advantages over using the water level difference method alone, as the former can accurately eliminate the abnormal interference of seismic activity to water level. The optimal prediction methods of the six monitoring wells vary, with the optimal prediction days being within 60 days. Additionally, the study identifies the monitoring wells with the optimal prediction efficiency in the fault areas. While the combination of water level and seismic activity parameters is not universally applicable to all monitoring wells, this method can effectively reflect the extent to which water level are influenced by seismic activity.

Key words: Well water level precursor, Seismic activity, Water level data processing, Molchan chart method, Prediction efficiency

CLC Number:

P315.7

LU Ming-gui, GU Hong-biao, YANG Yao, RUI Xue-lian, XU Duo-zhan, MA Yi-ning, ZHANG Wen-xu, CHI Bao-ming. Comparative Study on the Prediction Efficiency of Monitoring Well Water Level in Ya’an Area[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(3): 215-231.

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Comparative Study on the Prediction Efficiency of Monitoring Well Water Level in Ya’an Area

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