Abstract: Jiang-Huai seismic area (29°~34°29'N,110°~124°E) is a seismically active area for moderately strong earthquakes, the magnitudes of earthquakes are mainly 5~6,and the seismicity shows a quasi-periodicity with a century scale and a scale of several decades. There are two migrations in moderately strong seismic activity, i. e. the eastward migratory movement and anticlockwise movement. Since 1990, the seismicity has been active along the border zone among this area—North China seismic area and South China seismic area. According to the above-mentioned analysis, the Baye’s estimation and probability prediction of earthquake recurrence condition, an earthquake is predicted, which probably occurs early in the next century, its possible epicenter is expected to be in Southern Yellow sea waters in the east of this area, and its magnitude is estimated to be about 6. Besides, the moderate or stronger shocks also probably occur along the border zone between Jiangsu province and Anhui province.

Key words: Seismic activity, Jiang-Huai Seismic area, Baye's estimation, Condition probability