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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2002, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 15-20.

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Strengthening basic theoretical study and basic monitoring——Consideration regarding improvement of earthquake prediction level

LI Yan-xing   

  1. The First Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, CSB, Tianjin 300180, China
  • Received:2002-03-11 Revised:2002-03-18 Online:2002-07-31 Published:2021-12-21

Abstract: In the paper, the present level of earthquake prediction in China is analyzed. With an averaged success rate (R-value) of 0. 330 in earthquake prediction in China from 1996 to 2000,one can see that the general prediction level in China is rather low now, the success rare is unstable, and the proportions of false predictions and failure predictions are quite high. The major factors to effect improving the level of earthquake prediction in China areas follows: the earthquake prediction in China is stillthe empirical type. Limited and restricted by the experi-ences of the people, the prediction level is difficult to improvequalitatively. Second, arelative-lyperfect theoretical foundation has not beenestablished now, and the prediction method and prediction system basedon the theoretical models has not been formed y et. Third, the basic observational system is weak, and a variety of "physical field" information related to space-time variation can't be provided. The analysis in the paper indicates that the theoretical study on seismicity, earthquake development and occurrence is mainly involved in 3 scientific fields of geody namics, astrodynamics and geochemistry. And the related scientific disciplines are main-ly geophysics, geodesy, geology, geochemistry and astrophysics. We should carry out a key study on the basic theories associated with seismicity, earthquake development and occurrence, and earthquake triggering with in these 5 scientific disciplines. Therefore, for the need of earthquake prediction, basic monitoring should be further streng thened inorder toobtain a va-riety of information related to space-time variation from the velocity field of crustal horizontal and vertical movements, from the gravity field, geomagnetic field, stress field and crustal heat flow field in the major seismic monitoring areas in China's Mainl and. Moreover, to improve the level of earthquake prediction in China, 3 high-quality seismic contingents should beestab-lished, e. g. an expert conting ent in earthquake prediction, an expert contingent in basic theo-retical re search and a conting ent in seismic monitoring.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Pre-existing problem, Basic theory, Basic monitoring

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