地震预测的构造物理模型研究*

Abstract

Abstract: Having collected and analyzed the active faults, seismicity and geophysical fields,7 69 potential tectonophysical seismic sources were defined. 477 sources studied in this paperare located along major seismic belts in China's continent. The spatial geometric data are quan-titatively described and the source parameters are systematically studied. The analytical systemis developed on GIS platform. The proba bility of strong earthquake occurrence in the decade iscalculated. The danger regions in 1999~ 2008 are predicted. These danger regions can be di-vided into 3 grades according to their probability. The prediction shows a good result predict-1ng the strong earthquake occurrence from 1999 to 2001 in China's continent.

Key words: Tectonophysics, Earthquake predic tion, Earthquake occurrence probability

CLC Number:

P315.75
P313

DENG Zhi-hui, WANG Sheng-zu, HU ANG Xiu-ming, ZHOU Ben-gang, XU Haomin. Study on tectonophysical model of earthquake prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2003, 23(2): 21-28.

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Study on tectonophysical model of earthquake prediction

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