一种强震概率预测方法

Abstract

Abstract: By using Logistic regression, a probabilistic method for strong earthquake prediction has been introduced in this paper.The relation between seismic parameters and the probability of strong earthquake occurrence has been discussed by taking b value and r, the range of a given number of events covered in a given length of time sections in New Zealand as an example.Results show that the probability of strong earthquake occurrence has generally positive and negative correlation respectively for b value and r, which was estimated by events occurred in a time window of 1.5 year before strong earthquake occurrence.This method can be broadly applied to other anomaly distribution and the probabilistic relation of strong earthquake occurrence.

Key words: Logistic regression, Temporal-spatial scanning, Probabilistic prediction, Strong earthquakes

CLC Number:

P315.75

CHEN Shi-jun, MA Li, David Harte, WANG Li-feng. A probabilistic method for strong earthquake prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2003, 23(3): 19-26.

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A probabilistic method for strong earthquake prediction

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