Abstract: Based on GPS data that Indian tectonic plate and Burma tectonic plate are moving, the earthquake structure background of large earthquakes in Indonesia is analyzed. The normal stress decreased and share stress increased in Indian and Burma tectonic Plates after large earthquakes, share stress is the main dynamic source influence on earthquake tendency in east China. Simple statistics show that there are 21 sets of corresponding moderately strong earthquakes occurred in East China in 3 years after India and Burma tectonic plate earthquakes. By using the formula of probability gain, we can know that this correspondence earthquake relation between East China and Indian and Burma tectonic plates is a correspondent with physical function, not random correspondent relation. Through β distribution function, we can predict that the probability of earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 is 0.67 in future 3 years in East China. The risk probability is 0.65.

Key words: Plate movement, Probability gain, Distribution function