Welcome to EARTHQUAKE,

EARTHQUAKE ›› 2006, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 35-39.

Previous Articles     Next Articles

A preliminary study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of great earthquakes (MS≥7.0) before 2020 in china's continent

FU Zheng-xiang, DING Xiang, WANG Xiao-qing   

  1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2005-03-11 Revised:2005-06-27 Published:2021-11-01

Abstract: A study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of great earthquakes (MS≥7.0) before 2020 in China's continent has been down by using n-multi Bernoulli model of independence test. The results show that the occurrence probability of earthquakes with MS=7.0~7.9 and MS=7.5~7.9 are 1.0; the occurrence probability of earthquakes with MS≥8.0 is 0.67 before 2020 in China's continent. According to the preceding probability level of 0.10, numbers of earthquakes with MS=7.0~7.9, MS=7.5~7.9 and MS≥8.0 would range from 8 to 12, 1 to 4 and 1 to 2, respectively. Therefore, the maximum magnitude of great earthquakes would be 7.5~7.9, and it doesn't exclude the possibility of earthquake occurrence with MS≥8.0 before 2020 in China's continent.

Key words: China's continent, Before 2020, Prediction of great earthquake numbers, Maximum magnitude prediction of great earthquake

CLC Number: