汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常

Abstract

Abstract: The Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR) value fluctuates around 1.0 during the early stage of the seismogenic process and then gradually reaches its peak point (PP), but strong earthquakes do not onset at that time and will occur sometime later. This lag time( T₂ ) depends on magnitude of the impending earthquake. The larger the magnitude, the longer the lag time T₂ will be. For a large earthquake like M8, the anticipated T₂ is 28±8 months and the real T₂ for Wenchuan earthquake was 23 months. After the peak point, LURR decreases sharply and T₂ lasts a long time. Therefore at the eve of a large event LURR would be very low, but the predicted earthquake has not happened yet. In such a case, it is easy to doubt and even give up a correct prediction. That was the blood lesson to us from Wenchuan earthquake. A large earthquake should prepare not only for a long time, but also in a vast region. In one word, the LURR anomaly (and also the other precursors perhaps) of a large earthquake will be revealed in large temporal and spatial scales. Based on this insight we predict that a super large earthquake is prepared in south-western China.

Key words: Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake, LURR, Earthquake precursor, Large Scale Phenomena

CLC Number:

P315.7

YIN Xiang-chu, ZHANG Lang-ping, ZHANG Yong-xian, PANG Ke-yin, WANG Hai-tao, SONG Zhi-ping, YUAN Shuai. Large Scale LURR Anomaly before Wenchuan Earthquake[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2009, 29(1): 53-59.

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Large Scale LURR Anomaly before Wenchuan Earthquake

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