汶川余震序列的加卸载响应比分析

Abstract

Abstract: On 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake with magnitude M_S8.0 occurred in Sichuan, China. Because of the different focal mechanisms, we divide the distribution region of Wenchuan aftershocks into two parts, namely the southwest part and the northeast part, which are analysed using the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method separately. The results showed that LURR-values in both the two parts are obviously smaller than 1.0 after the main shock, so the Wenchuan earthquake can be determined to be the usual mainshock-aftershock type. On the other hand, before the occurrence of strong aftershocks (M≥5.0) in the sequence, the LURR-values show anomalies of high values and most strong aftershocks occurred after LURR experienced a peak value. Considering the temporal clustering and spatial concentration of aftershock sequences after the occurrence of most major earthquakes, an improved version of LURR combining the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is applied to the analyses of the sequence in the first 15 days after the main shock. The results showed that the new LURR can eliminate the fluctuations caused by aftershock clusters to some extent and is better for forecasting strong aftershocks.

Key words: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR), Strong aftershock forecast, ETAS model, Wenchuan earthquake

CLC Number:

P315.7

ZHANG Lang-ping, YIN Xiang-chu, ZHUANG Jian-cang, ZHANG Xiao-tao, YUAN Shuai, LIANG Nai-gang. Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2009, 29(1): 60-67.

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Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence

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