安宁河、 则木河构造区近期强震危险性的概率估计

Abstract

Abstract: After the 2008 Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake, Anninghe-Zemuhe fracture region, which has been a frequent strong earthquake zone in history, located in the middle south of the South-North Seismic Zone, has received extensive attention. Based on analyzing the unique characters of strong earthquake activity in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone, this paper calculated the cumulative probability and conditional probability of strong earthquake above magnitude 6.5 in the next decade in this area, by using the Weibull probability seismic risk estimation method. Moreover, by integrating previous studies on the Coulomb stress changes in peripheral faults and the potential focal zone caused by the Wenchuan earthquake rupture, we proposed a comprehensive judgment on the strong earthquake risk in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone. The results show that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake would inevitably lead to middle and strong earthquakes above magnitude 5.0 earthquake activates gradually in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone. According to the Weibull probability model, the probability of occurring strong earthquake above magnitude 6.5 before 2021 in this area is as high as 0.93, and the conditional probability is 0.32. Therefore, in this tectonic zone, especially in the Mianning-Xichang region within this zone, the possibility of strong earthquake in the next decade is relatively high.

Key words: Strong earthquake risk, Weibull probability distribution, Probability prediction, Active tectonic zone, Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone

CLC Number:

P315.7

LU Peng, YUAN Yi-fan, YUAN Hong-ke LIU Xue-ling, YU Xiao-hui, DUAN Yu-shi. Probabilistic Estimate of Strong Earthquake Risk in the Anninghe-Zemuhe Tectonic Zone[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2012, 32(4): 62-72.

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Probabilistic Estimate of Strong Earthquake Risk in the Anninghe-Zemuhe Tectonic Zone

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