影响b值计算误差的Monte Carlo实验研究

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, we assume that relationship between earthquake occurrence and time follows stationary Poisson model; and earthquake magnitude M is an exponential distribution with parameter 1/β, β=b/loge. Earthquake catalog are generated based on this assumption. We use the least square method to estimate b values, and analysis the error of b values from number of samples, magnitude interval, and magnitude respectively. Statistical analysis shows that the standard deviation of b values decreases with the increase of the number of samples, the standard deviation of b values decreases with the increase of the magnitude interval, and magnitude error makes the standard deviation of b value bigger.

Key words: b value, Monte Carlo, Least square method, Seismic hazard analysis

CLC Number:

P315.7

LIU Shan-qi, LI Yong-bing, TIAN Hui-quan, ZHU Bo-jing, SHI Yao-lin. Monte Carlo Experiments on the Influencing Factors of b Value Calculation Errors[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2013, 33(4): 135-144.

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Monte Carlo Experiments on the Influencing Factors of b Value Calculation Errors

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