Kcv值在河北及邻区地震预测中的应用研究

Abstract

Abstract: As an effective prediction index, the spatial distribution heterogeneity parameter C_v of seismicity has been widely used in recent years. However, C_v value can change with the different sample size of spatial distribution events. In this paper, C_v value is normalized as K_cv value, we counted the spatial heterogeneity distribution of earthquake events in Hebei and its adjacent regions, and combined with spatial-temporal synthetical probability gain model to study its feasibility in earthquake prediction. The prediction efficiency and the optimal time scale are calculated using theK_cv value and earthquake case statistics over the past 40 years in the studied area. The feasibility and effectiveness of K_cv value method in earthquake prediction in Hebei region are further proved by analyzing its probability gain, and the probability of earthquakes greater than M5.0 with the actual earthquake occurrences from 2008 to 2012. And predictions of the greater than M5.0 earthquake probability and probability gain from 2013 to 2017 are carried out in this area.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, K_cv Value, Probability gain, Hebei province

CLC Number:

P315.7

QI Yu-yan, SUN Li-na, QIU Yu-rong, LI Jiang, JIN Xue-shen. Application of K_cv Values in Forecasting Earthquakes in Hebei and its Neighboring Regions[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2015, 35(2): 101-110.

References

[1] 龙锋, 闻学泽, 徐锡伟. 华北地区地震活断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系[J]. 地震地质, 2006, 28(4): 511-535.
[2] 张路. 华北地区地震和深部构造关系及其破裂机制探讨[J]. 地震, 2012, 32(3): 87-97.
[3] 刘杰, 陈棋福. 华北地区地震目录完全性分析[J]. 地震, 1996, 16(1): 59-67.
[4] 徐伟进. 地震危险性分析中地震时空统计分布模型研究[D]. 北京: 中国地震局地球物理研究所博士论文.
[5] 王辉, 曹建玲, 申旭辉. 华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(2): 11-23.
[6] 平建军, 张永仙, 张清荣, 等. 华北地区地震短期综合预测方法研究[J]. 中国地震, 2003, 19(4): 416-424.
[7] 张素欣, 吕晓健, 王亚茹, 等. 华北北部三次地震前的应变释放加速特征[J]. 地震, 2014, 34(1): 49-57.
[8] 孙丽娜, 齐玉妍, 温超, 等. 中长期地震预测中的PI算法改进研究及应用[J]. 地震, 2012, 32(4): 44-52.
[9] 王晓青, 陈学忠, 李志雄, 等. 地震前兆群体空间非均匀性指标C_v值研究[J]. 中国地震, 1999, 15(3): 199-209.
[10] 陈学忠, 王晓青, 李志雄, 等. 强震前短临地震前兆时空分布非均匀性变化特征[J]. 地震学报, 2000, 22(1): 27-34.
[11] 杨明波, 宋治平, 王力, 等. 水化异常空间非均匀性指标C_v值的映震效能[J]. 华南地震, 2000, 20(1): 24-27.
[12] 鲁跃, 王晓青, 王科英. 短临地震前兆空间非均匀性的定量研究[J]. 地震地磁观测与研究, 2000, 21(3): 44-50.
[13] 王凯英, 马胜利, 刘力强, 等. 地震前兆时空非均匀性指标C_v值的实验检验[J]. 地震学报, 2002, 24(1): 82-89.
[14] 王晓青, 邱玉荣, 丁香. 等. 中国大陆地震活动非均匀性及其地震预测研究[A], 中国地震局地震预测研究所编: 中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2010年度)[C], 2009.
[15] 邱玉荣, 王晓青, 郑友华, 等. 地震分布非均匀性指标K_cv值及其在亚洲大地震预测中的应用研究[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(3): 27-36.
[16] 王晓青, 吕金霞, 丁香. 强震时一空综合概率增益模型与中长期预测方法效能研究[J]. 中国地震, 2002, 18(4): 346-355.
[17] 王晓青. R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进[J]. 中国地震, 2000, 16(3): 256-262.

Application of K_cv Values in Forecasting Earthquakes in Hebei and its Neighboring Regions

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	WANG Xiao-li, ZHOU Dong-rui, LI Ling-li, ZHANG Bing, LIU Jian, LI Jun-hui. Small Earthquake Detection in Huoshan Seismic Window and Its Application in Earthquake Prediction [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(2): 135-146.
[2]	BO Wan-ju, ZHANG Li-cheng, SU Guo-ying, XU Dong-zhuo, ZHAO Li-jun. Thoughts on Monitoring and Forecasting Methods of Strong Earthquake with Crust Deformation Data [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(1): 64-77.
[3]	TIAN Wei-xi, ZHANG Yong-xian. Study on Earthquake Forecast in the North-South Seismic Belt by Pattern Informatics Method [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2023, 43(3): 159-177.
[4]	WANG Yang-hong, SU He-jun, ZHANG Hui, LI Chen-hua, ZHOU Hui-ling. Application of Standard Annual Dynamic Curve Method in Radon Data Processing of Seismic Fluid Monitoring Station [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2023, 43(1): 171-184.
[5]	ZHANG Xiang, SUN Xian-kun, HU Jun, YIN Jing-yuan, XIONG Yu-jie. Short-term and Imminent Earthquake Prediction Combined with Data Augmentation and Residual Shrinkage Network [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2022, 42(2): 74-88.
[6]	YUAN Ai-jing, WANG Wei-jun, PENG Fei, YAN Kun, KOU Hua-dong. Recent Progress of Earthquake Prediction with Machine Learning [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(1): 51-66.
[7]	WANG Xi-long, JIA Xiao-dong, QIAN Rui, FU Cong. Analysis on Anomalous Characteristics and Earthquake Prediction Efficiency of High-frequency Information from Digital Water Level and Water Temperature before 2013 Lushan M7.0 Earthquake in the North-South Seismic Belt of China [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2020, 40(2): 100-116.
[8]	XU Zhong-huai. In Search of a New Physical Basis for Large Earthquake Prediction [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2019, 39(2): 11-18.
[9]	SHI Fu-qiang, SHAO Zhi-gang, ZHU Lin, ZHANG Zhu-qi, SHAO Hui-cheng. Earthquake Science on the Western Coast of South American (Chile)and Implications for Earthquake Prediction: An Overview [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2019, 39(1): 155-170.
[10]	LI Yan-e, CHEN Xue-zhong. Coulomb Stress Changes Imparted in the Rupture Zones of the Lushan Earthquake and the Kangding Earthquake by the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2019, 39(1): 136-145.
[11]	LI Li, WANG Xia, SONG Mei-qin, WU Hao-yu, LIANG Yan. Earthquake Prediction Effectiveness based on Anomaly Judgement of Datong Window [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(4): 142-150.
[12]	ZHANG Guo-qing, ZHU Yi-qing, LIANG Wei-feng, GUO Shu-song, WEI Shou-chun. Spatial Patterns of Regional Gravity Changes before the 2008 and 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquakes [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(4): 14-21.
[13]	XIANG Yang, SUN Xiao-long, WANG Bo. Earthquake Prediction Efficiency Testing of Observed Fluid Data in Xinjiang using Molchan Diagram Method [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(3): 103-114.
[14]	SHAO Zhi-gang, WANG Peng. Reflections on Earthquake Prediction Research Ten Years after the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(2): 1-10.
[15]	YIN Xiang-chu,LIU Yue,ZHANG lang-ping, LI Wen-jun,YUAN Shuai,ZHANG Xiao-tao. LURR Anomaly, Prediction and Tracking of Large Earthquakes in the Pan-southwestern Region [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(4): 37-49.

Application of Kcv Values in Forecasting Earthquakes in Hebei and its Neighboring Regions

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

Application of K_cv Values in Forecasting Earthquakes in Hebei and its Neighboring Regions