南北地震带北段流体资料地震预测效能检验

Abstract

Abstract: A mass amount of observation data with long, consecutive, and many earthquake records in the north segment of North-South Seismic Belt are chosen, and Molchan Error Diagram method is used to analyze the relationship between observation data and earthquakes nearby. We calculate "time occupancy", "forecast efficiency" and "probability gain". It shows that the forecast efficiency of the observation data have great differences. On a whole, data in the southeastern area of Gansu province have a good test result, and the probability gain is larger. Most data in the eastern area of Qinghai province have better forecast efficiency, but the probability gain is relatively poorer. The two stations along the eastern foot of Helan mountain fault have a similar forecast rate, but their probability gain, time occupancy, and forecast efficiency are distinct. Besides, from the precursory time of observation data, short-term anomalies and long-term anomalies are dominant.

Key words: Fluid Anomaly, Earthquake precursor, Molchan Error Diagram, North-South Seismic Belt

CLC Number:

P315.7

WANG Bo, ZHONG Jun, WANG Yi-xi, CHEN Shi. Testing the Forecast Efficiency of Underground Fluid Observation in the North Segment of North-South Seismic Belt[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(1): 147-156.

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Testing the Forecast Efficiency of Underground Fluid Observation in the North Segment of North-South Seismic Belt

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