华北地区强震活动特点研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2020.01.002

Abstract

Abstract: North China is the most central area for politics, economy and culture of our country, and also one of the earthquake-prone areas in China. The historical record for seismic data in North China is earlier and more continuous, and it is an ideal site for strong earthquake activity studying. This paper has selected the M≥6.0 earthquake catalogue in the third and fourth active periods as the basic data to study the activity characteristics of strong earthquakes in North China. Firstly, the relations of strong earthquake activity levels to active-tectonic blocks and boundaries in North China are discussed. Then, the recurrent phase and episodic characteristics of strong earthquake activities from time and space in North China are analyzed. Finally, the cumulative and conditional probabilities of the M≥6.0 earthquakes in North China are calculated to evaluate earthquake occurrence in this region after five years. The results suggest ① the M≥6.0 earthquakes are mainly concentrated in active-tectonic boundaries, the M≥7.0 earthquakes all happened in active-tectonic boundaries, and the linear relation between seismic strain-releasing rates and tectonic deformation velocities of active-tectonic boundaries in North China; ② Because energy releases of activity curtains in the fourth seismic active periods are lower than that of the third seismic active periods, it seems that M≥6.0 earthquakes will occur in North China in the future; ③ There are obviously different major regions of strong earthquakes between the third and fourth seismic active periods in North China, earthquake activities of the fourth seismic period migrate eastward compared with the third seismic period; ④ If the current quiet episode of the M≥6.0 earthquakes ends in the beginning of 2020, the accumulated seismic probability of the M≥6.0 earthquakes is about 80%; and if the current quiet episode of the M≥6.0 earthquakes ends by the end of 2022, the conditional seismic probability is 50%. This study can provide significant reference for the analysis of overall seismic trend and medium-to-long term earthquake hazard prediction in North China.

Key words: Strong earthquake activities in North China, Active-tectonic blocks and boundaries, Recurrent phase characteristics of strong earthquake activities, Episodic characteristics of strong earthquake activities, Seismic hazard

CLC Number:

P315.7

YIN Xiao-fei, ZHANG Guo-min, SHAO Zhi-gang, WANG Peng, SUN Xin-zhe. Research on Activity Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes in North China[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2020, 40(1): 11-33.

References

[1] 张国民, 张培震. “大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展[J]. 中国基础科学, 2000, (10): 4-10.
ZHANG Guo-min, ZHANG Pei-zhen. Academic Progress on the Mechanism and Forecast for Continental Strong Earthquake in the First Two Years[J]. Chinese Basic Science, 2000, (10): 4-10 (in Chinese).
[2] 国家科委全国重大自然灾害综合研究组. 中国重大自然灾害及减轻对策[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1994.
National Integrated Research Group on Major Natural Disasters of the National Science and Technology Commission. China’s Major Natural Disasters and Its Mitigation Measures[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1994 (in Chinese).
[3] 张少泉. 地球物理概论[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1986.
ZHANG Shao-quan. Introduction of Geophysics[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1986 (in Chinese).
[4] Molnar P, Tapponnier P. Cenozoic Tectonics of Asia: Effects of a Continental Collision: Features of recent continental tectonics in Asia can be interpreted as results of the India-Eurasia collision[J]. Science, 1975, 189(4201): 419-426.
[5] Teng C T, CHANG Y M, Hsu K L, et al. On the tectonic stress field in China and its relation to plate movement[J]. Physics of The Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1979, 18(4): 257-273.
[6] 马瑾, 马胜利. 断层几何结构与物理场的演化及失稳特征[J]. 地震学报, 1996, 18(2): 200-207.
MA Jin, MA Sheng-li. Evolution and instability of fault geometry and physical field[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1996, 18(2): 200-207 (in Chinese).
[7] 张国民, 耿鲁明, 石耀霖. 中国大陆强震轮回活动的计算基模型研究[J]. 中国地震, 1993, 9(1): 20-32.
ZHANG Guo-min, GENG Lu-ming, SHI Yao-lin. A computer model for cyclic activities of strong earthquake in continental seismic zones[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 1993, 9(1): 20-32 (in Chinese).
[8] 张国民, 耿鲁明, 张永仙. 构造块体成组孕震模型和前兆场某些特征分析[J]. 地震学报, 1995, 17(1): 1-10.
ZHANG Guo-min, GENG Lu-ming, ZHANG Yong-xian. Analysis of some characteristics of seismic model and precursor field for structural block formation[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1995, 17(1): 1-10 (in Chinese).
[9] 张国民, 李丽. 强震成组孕育、成组发生过程中相互间影响的研究[J]. 地震, 1997, 17(3): 221-231.
ZHANG Guo-min, LI Li. On group features of the strong earthquake preparation and occurrence and their correlation[J]. Earthquake, 1997, 17(3): 221-231 (in Chinese).
[10] 张培震. 中国大陆岩石圈最新构造变动与地震灾害[J]. 第四纪研究, 1999, (5): 404-413.
ZHANG Pei-zhen. Late quaternary tectonic deformation and earthquake hazard in continental China[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 1999, (5): 404-413 (in Chinese).
[11] 张培震, 邓起东, 张国民, 等. 中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2003, 33(S1): 12-20.
ZHANG Pei-zhen, DENG Qi-dong, ZHANG Guo-min, et al. Strong earthquake activities and activities in mainland China[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2003, 33(S1): 12-20 (in Chinese).
[12] 张国民, 张培震. 近年来大陆强震机理与预测研究的主要进展[J]. 中国基础科学, 1999, (Z1): 49-60.
ZHANG Guo-min, ZHANG Pei-zhen. Recent research progress on the mechanism and forecast for continental strong earthquakes[J]. Chinese Basic Science, 1999, (Z1): 49-60 (in Chinese).
[13] 张国民, 马宏生, 王辉, 等. 中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2004, 34(7): 591-599.
ZHANG Guo-min, MA Hong-sheng, Wang Hui, et al. Relationship between active land mass and strong earthquake activity in mainland China[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2004, 34(7): 591-599 (in Chinese).
[14] 张国民, 马宏生, 王辉, 等. 中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J]. 地球物理学报, 2005, 48(3): 278-290.
ZHANG Guo-min, MA Hong-sheng, WANG Hui, et al. Boundaries between active-tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in China mainland[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2005, 48(3): 278-290 (in Chinese).
[15] 张培震, 邓起东, 张竹琪, 等. 中国大陆的活动断裂、地震灾害及其动力过程[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2013, (43): 1607-1620.
ZHANG Pei-zhen, DENG Qi-dong, ZHANG Zhu-qi, et al. Active faults, earthquake hazards and associated geodynamic processes in continental China[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2013, (43): 1607-1620 (in Chinese).
[16] Yin A , Yu X J , Shen Z K , et al. A possible seismic gap and high earthquake hazard in the North China Basin[J]. Geology, 2014, 43(1): 1-4.
[17] 张国民, 马宗晋, 蒋铭. 华北强震规律的研究[J]. 中国地震, 1988, (3): 72-76.
ZHANG Guo-min, MA Zong-jin, JIANG Ming. Study on the law of strong earthquake in North China[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 1988, (3): 72-76 (in Chinese).
[18] 韩竹军, 徐杰, 冉勇康, 等. 华北地区活动地块与强震活动[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2003, 33(S1): 108-118.
HAN Zhu-jun, XU Jie, RAN Yong-kang, et al. Activity block and strong earthquake activities in North China[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2003, 33(S1): 108-118 (in Chinese).
[19] 国家地震局鄂尔多斯活动断裂系课题组. 鄂尔多斯活动断裂系[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1988.
Research Group of Ordos Active Fracture Department of National Seismological Bureau. Ordos active fracture system[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1988 (in Chinese).
[20] 杜菊民, 张庆龙, 徐士银, 等. 阴山晚中生代板内造山特征及其动力机制以内蒙古大青山为例[J]. 地质学报, 2009, 83(7): 910-922.
DU Ju-min, ZHANG Qing-long, XU Shi-yin, et al. Characters of Later Jurassic Yinshan Intraplate Orogeny Belt: Evidence from Daqing Shan, Inner Mongolia[J]. Acta Geologica Sinica, 2009, 83(7): 910-922 (in Chinese).
[21] 聂宗笙. 公元前7年内蒙古包头地区8级地震的初步研究[J]. 地震学报, 2013, 35(4): 584-603.
NIE Zong-sheng. Preliminary investigation on the historical M8 earthquake occurred in 7 BC at Baotou, Inner Mongolia[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2013, 35(4): 584-603 (in Chinese).
[22] 聂宗笙, 吴卫民, 马保起. 公元849年内蒙古包头东地震地表破裂带及地震参数讨论[J]. 地震学报, 2010, 32(1): 94-107.
NIE Zong-sheng, WU Wei-min, MA Bao-qi. Surface rupture of the A.D. 849 earthquake occurred to the east of Baotou city, China, and discussion on its parameters[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2010, 32(1): 94-107 (in Chinese).
[23] 韩孔艳. 张家口—渤海构造带的分段性与地震活动特征研究[D]. 北京: 中国地震局地质研究所, 2009.
HAN Kong-yan. Research on the Segmentation and Seismic Activity Characteristics of Zhangjiakou-Bohai Structural Zone[D]. Beijing: Graduate Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2009 (in Chinese).
[24] 蔺作文, 何恢亚, 王全庆. 东秦岭(陕南)古生代以来地质构造特征—断裂式多期构造活动带[J]. 长安大学学报: 地球科学版, 1982, (1): 48-59.
LIN Zuo-wen, HE Hui-ya, WANG Quan-qing. Characteristics of geological structure since the Paleozoic era in the Eastern Qinling Mountains (Southern Shaanxi)-fracture multiphase tectonic activity zone[J]. Journal of Chang’ an University: Earth Science Edition, 1982, (1): 48-59 (in Chinese).
[25] 国家地震局地质研究所. 郯城—江断裂[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1987.
Institute of Geology, National Seismological Administration. Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1987 (in Chinese).
[26] 徐杰, 牛娈芳, 王春华, 等. 唐山-河间-磁县新生地震构造带[J]. 地震地质, 1996, 18(3): 193-198.
XU Jie, NIU Luan-fang. WANG Chun-hua, et al. Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian newly-generated seismotectonic zone[J]. Seismology and Geology, 1996, 18(3): 193-198 (in Chinese).
[27] 张培震, 王琪, 马宗晋. 中国大陆现今构造变形的GPS速度场与活动地块[J]. 地学前缘, 2002, 9(2): 430-441.
ZHANG Pei-zhen, WANG Qi, MA Zong-jin. GPS velocity field and active crustal blocks of contemporary tectonic deformation in continental China[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2002, 9(2): 430-441 (in Chinese).
[28] 朱日祥, 陈凌, 吴福元, 等. 华北克拉通破坏的时间、范围与机制[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2011, (5): 583-592.
ZHU Ri-xiang, CHEN Ling, WU Fu-yuan, et al. Time Range and Mechanism of Craton Destruction in North China[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2011, (5): 583-592 (in Chinese).
[29] 国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组. 一九七六唐山地震[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1982.
National Seismological Administration “Tangshan Earthquake of 1976” Editorial Team. Tangshan Earthquake occurred in 1976[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1982 (in Chinese).
[30] 黄玮琼, 李文香, 曹学锋. 中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一以华北地区为例[J]. 地震学报, 1994, 16(3): 273-280.
HUANG Wei-qiong, LI Wen-xiang, CAO Xue-feng. One of the Research on the Integrity of Seismic data in Mainland China-A Case Study of North China[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1994, 16(3): 273-280 (in Chinese).
[31] 马瑾. 从断层中心论向块体中心论转变—论活动块体在地震活动中的作用[J]. 地学前缘, 1999, 64(4): 363-370.
MA Jin. Changing viewpoint from fault to block-a discussion about the role of active block in seismicity[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 1999, 64(4): 363-370 (in Chinese).
[32] 李延兴, 杨国华, 李智, 等. 中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2003, 33(S1): 65-81.
LI Yan-xing, YANG Guo-hua, LI Zhi, et al. Movement and strain state of active blocks in mainland China[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2003, 33(S1): 65-81 (in Chinese).
[33] 王敏, 沈正康, 牛之俊, 等. 现今中国大陆地壳运动和构造变形[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2003, 33(S1): 21-32.
WANG Min, SHEN Zheng-kang, Niu Zhi-jun, et al. The current crust movement and structural deformation in the Chinese mainland[J]. Science in China (Series D), 2003, 33(S1): 21-32 (in Chinese).
[34] 邓起东, 徐锡伟, 于贵华. 中国活动断裂的分区特征. 见: 中国地震学会地震地质专业委员会主编. 中国活断层研究[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1994.
DENG Qi-dong, XU Xi-wei, YU Gui-hua. The zoning characteristics of active fracture in China. See in: Chief Editor, Seismological Geology Committee, China Seismological Society. The Study of China Active Fault[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1994 (in Chinese).
[35] 马杏垣. 中国岩石圈动力学图[M]. 北京: 地图出版社, 1989.
MA Xing-yuan. Dynamic diagram of Chinese Lithosphere[M]. Beijing: Map Press, 1989 (in Chinese).
[36] 张国民. 我国大陆强震活动的韵律性特征[J]. 地震地质, 1987, 9(2): 27-37.
ZHANG Guo-min. Rhythmic characteristics of high seismic activity in China mainland[J]. Seismology and Geology, 1987, 9(2): 27-37 (in Chinese).
[37] 马宗晋, 傅征祥, 张郢珍, 等. 1966—976年中国九大地震[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1982.
MA Zong-jin, FU Zheng-xiang, ZHANG Ying-zhen, et al. Nine earthquakes occurred in China from 1966 to 1976[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1982 (in Chinese).
[38] 闻学泽. 巴颜喀拉块体东边界千年破裂历史与2008年汶川、 2013年芦山和2017年九寨沟地震[J]. 地震学报, 2018, 40(3): 255-267.
WEN Xue-ze. The 2008 Wenchuan, 2013 Lushan and 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, Sichuan, in the last more than one thousand years of rupture history of the eastern margin of the Bayan Har block[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2018, 40(3): 255-267 (in Chinese).
[39] 苏刚, 许绍燮, 麻水歧, 等. 大华北新构造运动和地震活动“成片迁移”的成因探讨[J]. 地球物理学报, 1990, 33(3): 278-290.
SU Gang, XU Shao-xie, MA Shui-qi, et al. The cause of new tectonic movement and migration of earthquakes in groups in and around North China[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 1990, 33(3): 278-290 (in Chinese).
[40] 顾方琦, 张春芝, 张枝榴, 等. 1970年以来华东地区地震活动主体区的迁移[J]. 地震地质, 2011, 23(3): 475-480.
GU Fang-qi, ZHANG Chun-zhi, ZHANG Zhi-liu, et al. Migration of the main seismic areas in east China from 1970[J]. Seismology and Geology, 2011, 23(3): 475-480 (in Chinese).
[41] 宁津德治. 地震事典[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1990.
Ning Jin-de-zhi. Earthquake code[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1990 (in Chinese).
[42] 张之立. 唐山地震热力源的研究[J]. 地震学报, 1985, 7(1): 47-58.
ZHANG Zhi-li. Investigation of the thermal force sources of 1976 Tangshan earthquake[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1985, 7(1): 47-58 (in Chinese).
[43] 傅承义. 地球物理学基础[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1985.
FU Cheng-yi. Basic Geophysics[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1985 (in Chinese).
[44] 唐方头. 华北地块近期构造变形和强震活动特征研究[D]. 北京: 中国地震局地质研究所, 2003.
TANG Fang-tou. A study on the characteristics of recent tectonic deformation and earthquake activity in North China[D]. Beijing: Graduate Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2003 (in Chinese).
[45] 傅征祥, 刘杰, 王晓青, 等. 中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2003, 10(S1): 112-117.
FU Zheng-xiang, LIU Jie, WANG Xiao-qing, et al. Research on process and tendency prediction of great earthquakes (M_S≥8) in western China continent and its surroundings[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2003, 10(S1): 112-117 (in Chinese).
[46] Nishenko S P, Buland R. A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1987, 77(4): 1382-1399.
[47] 闻学泽.中国大陆活动断裂的段破裂地震复发行为[J]. 地震学报, 1999a, 21(4): 411-418.
WEN Xue-ze. Seismic recurrence of active rupture in the Chinese mainland[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1999a, 21(4): 411-418 (in Chinese).
[48] 闻学泽.中国大陆活动断裂段破裂地震复发间隔的经验分布[J]. 地震学报, 1999, 21(6): 616-622.
WEN Xue-ze. Empirical distribution of recurrent interval between ruptured active faults and earthquakes in mainland China[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1999, 21(6): 616-622 (in Chinese).
[49] 陈立春, 冉勇康. 京西北盆岭构造区强震复发概率模型及地震潜势的定量评估[J]. 地震地质, 2002, 24(1): 91-100.
CHEN Li-chun, RAN Yong-kang. Probability model for strong earthquake recurrence and quantitative estimates of seismic potential in the basin-and-range province, Northwest of Beijing[J]. Seismology and Geology, 2002, 24(1): 91-100 (in Chinese).

Research on Activity Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes in North China

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 10

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	QI Feng-jiao, LI Wen, SU He-jun, CHEN Wen-kai, WANG Zi-jing, SU Hao-ran. Study on the Regional Assessment Models for the Mortalies Caused by Earthquakes in the Chinese Mainland [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2022, 42(1): 70-84.
[2]	REN Meng-yi. Generalized Extreme Value Model of Seismicity for the Longmenshan Region [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(2): 157-166.
[3]	Li Yu-jiang,Shao Zhi-gang,Ji Ling-yun,Chen Lian-wang. An Overview of Multidisciplinary Research on Caribbean Plate and Implications for Earthquake Prediction [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(2): 17-31.
[4]	TIAN Jian-wei,LIU Zhe,REN Lu-chuan. Seismic Hazard Estimation of the Manila Trench Subduction Zone based on Generalized Pareto Distribution [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(1): 158-165.
[5]	LIU Shan-qi, LI Yong-bing, TIAN Hui-quan, ZHU Bo-jing, SHI Yao-lin. Monte Carlo Experiments on the Influencing Factors of b Value Calculation Errors [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2013, 33(4): 135-144.
[6]	CHEN Shi, XU Wei-min, ZHU Yi-qing, JIANG Chang-sheng, LU Hong-yan, GUO Feng-yi. Estimating the Boundary of Density Anomaly Source and Hazard Zone based on Gravity Variation before Earthquakes [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(4): 98-107.
[7]	JIANG Chang-sheng, ZHANG Lang-ping, HAN Li-bo, LAI Gui-juan. Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Long-term and Intermediate-term Seismic Hazard I: Molchan Error Diagram [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(2): 106-113.
[8]	WANG Hui, CAO Jian-ling, SHEN Xu-hui. Background Seismicity and its Application to Seismic Hazard Assessment in the North China Region [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(2): 11-23.
[9]	MI Su-ting, CHENG Guo-xing, WU Hao, GAO Zhan-wu, YANG Pan-xin. Uncertainty analysis of latent focal region and upper magnitude limit in seismic hazard analysis [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2004, 24(3): 87-94.
[10]	Fu Zhengxiang, Liu Guiping. VISCO-ELASTIC MODEL OF INTERACTION BETWEEN PARALLEL STRIKE-SLIP FAULTS AND SEISMICITY REDUCTION EFFECT [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 1999, 19(2): 127-134.