中国大陆强震时空分布特征及2021年玛多7.4级地震后趋势分析

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2021.04.001

Abstract

Abstract: Analyzing characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland is benefit for determining trend of strong earthquakes in this region. Limited by completeness of catalogue, most analysis of strong earthquakes time intervals in Chinese mainland is on the basis of catalogue since 1900. Due to relative short duration of catalogue, it is difficult to exclude the possibility that current temporal characteristics of strong earthquakes are accidental, and it may cause over fitting which affects forecasting performance. To solve those problems, this paper analyzed synthetic catalogue based on the data from 2021—2030 key area for earthquake surveillance and protection in Chinese mainland. The results show that alternates clusters and quiescence is a common phenomenon for regional strong earthquakes. When supposed the active faults with quasi periodic recurrence behavior, temporal characteristics of synthetic catalogue are closest to the current catalogue. Based on understanding above, strong earthquake interval in Chinese mainland is fitted by the single parameter exponential distribution with wider application. Combined with structural correlation of adjacent strong earthquakes, trend of strong activity in Chinese mainland after the May 22, 2021 Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake is analyzed. Results show that the next M_S≥7.0 magnitude in Chinese mainland is likely to happen in next two years, the probability being 61.81% before the end of 2022. The probability with the next strong earthquake will occur in 2021 is 30.58%, and the most likely area is Bayankala block; The probability of the next strong earthquake within 2022 is 44.97%, and the middle-south section of the North-South seismic belt should be noticed.

Key words: Chinese mainland, Temporal characteristics of strong earthquakes, Spatial migration of strong earthquakes, Seismic trend

CLC Number:

P315.7

WANG Peng, SHAO Zhi-gang, SHI Fu-qiang, YIN Xiao-fei. Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Strong Earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and Trend after Maduo M_S7.4 Earthquake[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(4): 1-14.

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Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Strong Earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and Trend after Maduo M_S7.4 Earthquake

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Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Strong Earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and Trend after Maduo MS7.4 Earthquake

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Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Strong Earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and Trend after Maduo M_S7.4 Earthquake