基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次MS≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.02.008

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, the local area of North China (32°N~42°N, 114°E~122°E) was chosen as studied region. Regarding the 2023 Shandong Pingyuan M_S5.5 earthquake, 2021 Dafeng Sea area M_S5.0 earthquake and 2020 Hebei Guye M_S5.1 earthquake as the target earthquakes, the Pattern Informatics (PI) method was applied to the retrospective research on the forecasting seismic activity risk of the three earthquakes. With parameters of forecasting window length 5 years and grid size 0.5°×0.5°/1.0°×1.0°, the period from 2019 to 2027 of successive hotspot forecasting window images sliding year by year were obtained. The results show that PI hotspot effect with the grid size 1.0°×1.0 ° is better than 0.5°×0.5°. And it has a good indication effect on the location of Pingyuan and Dafeng sea area earthquakes. When the time window length and the absolute value of the normalization threshold increasing, only a few windows have effective hotspots for the Guye earthquake. But no parameter model that can simultaneously cover the epicenter grid of the three earthquakes has been found. There is a risk of M_S≥5.0 earthquake in the Bohai Rim region of the Tan-Lu fault zone in the following 3~4 years, which the PI hotspots under different parameter models indicating. The results of this paper can provide certain reference significance about seismic hazard analysis of M_S≥5.0 earthquake for local area of North China.

Key words: The 2023 Pingyuan M_S5.5 earthquake, The 2021 Dafeng sea area M_S5.0 earthquake, The 2020 Guye M_S5.1 earthquake, Pattern informatics method, Hotspot migration

CLC Number:

P315.7

SONG Cheng, ZHANG Yong-xian, XIA Cai-yun, BI Jin-meng, ZHANG Xiao-tao, WU Yong-jia, XU Xiao-yuan. Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three M_S≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(2): 120-134.

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Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three M_S≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method

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Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three MS≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method

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Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three M_S≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method