新疆天山地区MS≥7.0地震时空有序性分析

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.012

Abstract

Abstract: The phenomenon of strong earthquakes occurring in a specific spatiotemporal range following a certain pattern is referred to as seismic spatiotemporal orderliness. In this study, the commensurability method and three-dimensional ordered structure were applied to analyze M_S≥7.0 earthquakes in the Tianshan region since 1700. The commensurability equations were derived, and the three-dimensional ordered structure was constructed to enhance the reliability of trend analysis for strong earthquake occurrences. Furthermore, the occurrence trends of strong earthquakes in this region over the next 50 years were predicted. The results indicate that: ① M_S≥7.0 earthquakes in the Tianshan region of Xinjiang exhibit significant spatiotemporal orderliness, with a clear commensurability in occurrence times; ② The potential occurrence years for M_S≥7.0 earthquakes in this region within the next 50 years are 2026, 2028, and 2056; ③ Future strong earthquakes in the region are likely to migrate eastward.

Key words: Earthquake, Commensurability, Spatiotemporal orderliness, Tianshan region

CLC Number:

P315.7

HAN Xin-zhuo, WANG Yun. Spatiotemporal Order Analysis of M_S≥7.0 Earthquakes in Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, China[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(3): 180-192.

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Spatiotemporal Order Analysis of M_S≥7.0 Earthquakes in Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, China

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Spatiotemporal Order Analysis of MS≥7.0 Earthquakes in Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, China

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Spatiotemporal Order Analysis of M_S≥7.0 Earthquakes in Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, China