中国陆区未来10年地震危险性预测与地震风险评估研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.013

Abstract

Abstract: This paper elaborates on the specific tasks and research content involved in determining the Key Earthquake Monitoring and Preparedness Zones (ZFP) for the 2021—2030 period. With the fundamental goal of enhancing regional earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation capacity, the core work encompasses conducting research on long-term earthquake forecasting and earthquake disaster prediction, along with systematically analyzing regional seismic risks and potential disaster scenarios. Building on this foundation, the work fully integrates the current status and developmental needs of regional socio-economy to scientifically formulate the technical plan for delineating the boundaries of the ZFP. The objectives are to: Provide disaster prevention policies for governments at all levels to guide effective public participation in earthquake prevention and mitigation efforts; Establish well-defined strategic target areas for the deployment of focused initiatives within the earthquake monitoring system; Systematically develop and promote the implementation of a series of comprehensive countermeasures, aiming to elevate the overall earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation capacity and practical effectiveness of the region. The determination of these Key Zones will serve as a crucial reference for effectively conducting subsequent ZFP-related activities, including decadal updates, five-year rolling adjustments, and annual tracking.

Key words: The key earthquake monitoring and preparedness zones, Long-term earthquake forecasting, Earthquake risk assessment, Earthquake prevention and mitigation

CLC Number:

P315.7

SHAO Zhi-gang, WANG Wu-xing, LIU Qi, DOU Ai-xia, WANG Xiao-qing, WU Yan-qiang, JI Ling-yun, ZHANG Ling-xin, XU Wei-jin, XU Chong, WANG Peng, WEI Wen-xin, PAN Zheng-yang, LIU Xiao-xia, YIN Xiao-fei, FENG Wei, SUN Ke. Study on the Prediction of Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Assessment for the Next 10 Years in the Chinese Mainland[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(3): 193-218.

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Study on the Prediction of Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Assessment for the Next 10 Years in the Chinese Mainland

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