Abstract: The annual forecasting level, determination of earthquake risk areas and the actually occurred earthquakes in Yunnan region, which were recorded in the research report of annual earthquake tendency consultation between 1989—2006 have been analyzed in this paper. The results show that the annual occurrence rate for the earthquakes with M≥5.0 is about 2.8 groups and the triennially occurrence rate for earthquakes with M≥6.0 is about 2 groups in Yunnan region. As a result of the high natural probability of strong and moderately-strong earthquakes, the forecasting level of M≥6.0 earthquakes reached 56% since 1989. The level of risk areas forecast can not be determined by the number of risk areas. The application of some indices can help us improve the risk areas forecasting level for the earthquakes with M≥6.0, such as the areas with the frequency of M4.0 earthquakes show obvious intensifying phenomena and the areas with high water level anomaly. The longest time interval between the M5.0 earthquakes happened and the precursory anomalies appeared is 2～3 months in Yunnan region, so it is hard to determine the risk areas for M5.0 earthquakes based on the research report of annual earthquake tendency consultation, but the main seismic areas for M5.0 earthquakes exist migration pattern, using this feature can improve the risk areas forecasting level for M5.0 earthquakes. The research report of annual earthquake tendency consultation should focus on the earthquakes with M≥6.0, before M6.0 earthquakes, the time interval between moderately-small earthquake activities intensified, precursory anomalies appeared and corresponding earthquakes happened ranged from several months to 3 years,but precursory anomalies show obvious intensification in 6 months before the earthquakes with M≥6.0 happened in Yunnan region. If the earthquake activities intensified, we should dynamically trace the change of the precursory anomalies. The long-medium-short-impending progressive forecasting method is the most effective way to improve the earthquake forecasting level at present.

Key words: Annual earthquake tendency consultation, Determination of earthquake risk areas, Effective earthquake forecast method