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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2003, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 36-42.

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Earthquake prediction and some fundamentals of prognostics

HONG Shi-zhong   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Chengdu, Chengdu 610015, China
  • Received:2002-08-01 Revised:2002-10-16 Online:2003-07-31 Published:2021-12-21

Abstract: Earthquake prediction should keep to some fundamentals of Prognostics, which include principle of information non-increase, principle of objectivity, principle of self-he relation between probability of earthquakes and probability of anomalies is educed from Bayesian formula.Several inequality is introduced:Iprec.≤Iobs., Gout <Gin, Nsamp.>>Ncrit., Nsamp.>>Npar.>Nvar.and Nearthq.>Ncr it..Here I prec.-information of prediction, Iobs.information of observation, Gout out-ofsample prediction efficiency (grade), Gin in-sample prediction efficiency (grade), Nsamp.-the number of sample (sample size), Ncrit.the number of criterions used in prediction, Npar.the number of parameters, Nvar.the number of variables and Nearthq.the number of earthquakes.Conscious application of the above principles and formulas will conducive to the improvement of earthquake prediction.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Prognostics, Information theory, Objectivity, Self-consistency, Testability, Principle of succinctness (Occam's Razor)

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