强震前大小地震比例关系及在地震预报中的应用

EARTHQUAKE ›› 2003, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 37-42.

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The proportion of large to small earthquakes and application in earthquake prediction

SHAO Hui-cheng¹, LI Bing-qian¹, ZHAO Wei-ming², LIU Zhi-hui³, XIA Chang-qi³

1. Seismological Bureau of Shaanxi Province, Xi' an 710068, China;
2. Seismological Bureau of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan 750001, China;
3. Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China

Received:2002-11-15 Revised:2003-01-20 Online:2003-10-31 Published:2021-12-21

Abstract

Abstract: Aiming at the shortage of the b value method, which needs higher quality data, we used the maximum likelihood and Byaesian minimum criterion method to calculate the proportion number of large to small earthquakes before the eight strong earthquakes with M ≥6 in Northwest China region.It is found that the proportion has a certain significance for predicting the strong earthquakes with M ≥6 in Northwest China;and the paper also gives the explanation of the proportion of large to small earthquakes.

Key words: Large and small earthquakes, Strong earthquake, Criterion of Bayesian, Northwest China

CLC Number:

SHAO Hui-cheng, LI Bing-qian, ZHAO Wei-ming, LIU Zhi-hui, XIA Chang-qi. The proportion of large to small earthquakes and application in earthquake prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2003, 23(4): 37-42.

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The proportion of large to small earthquakes and application in earthquake prediction

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