基于图像信息方法的日本东北MW9.0地震回溯性预测研究

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, Pattern Informatics (PI) method was applied to the retrospective forecast study for M≥7.0 earthquakes, especially the Tohoku M_W9.0 earthquake in the chosen local area (32.0°~46.0°N, 136.0°~148.0°E) in Japan. With calculating parameters of 1°× l° grid and forecasting window of 8 years, hotspot diagrams of each forecasting window have been obtained since the year of 2000,and the relationship between the hotspots and all the M≥7.0 earthquakes during the forecasting windows were studied,especially for the M_W9.0 Tohoku earthquake in 2011. The results show that: ① In all forecasting windows containing the M_W9.0 Tohoku earthquake,the hotspots were in its Moore neighborhood grids. And in four continuous sliding windows,hotspot appeared in its epicentral grid. ② Totally,twenty-one M≥7.0 earthquakes occurred in the retrospective forecasting windows,and most of them occurred in the hotspot grid or its Moore neighborhood grids. Only the M7.1 earthquake off the coast of Japan Kinki on Sep.5^th 2004 did not occurred in the hotspot grid or its Moore neighborhood grids. ③ Compared with other M≥7.0 earthquakes,hotspots about M_W9.0 Tohoku earthquake has wider distribution zone,longer lasting time,and higher stability.

Key words: Retrospective forecast, PI method, Hotspot, Tohoku M_W9.0 earthquake

CLC Number:

P315.7

SONG Cheng,ZHANG Yong-xian,XIA Cai-yun,WU Yong-jia. Retrospective Forecasting Study of the Tohoku M_W9.0 Earthquake by Pattern Informatics Method[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(2): 47-56.

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Retrospective Forecasting Study of the Tohoku M_W9.0 Earthquake by Pattern Informatics Method

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Retrospective Forecasting Study of the Tohoku MW9.0 Earthquake by Pattern Informatics Method

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Retrospective Forecasting Study of the Tohoku M_W9.0 Earthquake by Pattern Informatics Method