“地震可预测性国际合作研究”—1.0阶段工作理念及成果

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2021.04.016

Abstract

Abstract: The working routine and research procedure for the earthquake prediction and forecasting began to be discussed after the international debates for the predictability of earthquake started in 1990s. This change gave a new sight for the earthquake researchers for the question that how to conduct an assessment and evaluation for the model performance once a model outputted a forecast result for potential of large earthquakes. To promote the earthquake forecast experiments using likelihood models, the group of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) started by the South California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and it produced hundreds of forecast models in a few years. These models were defined and developed by the seismologists in different research departments. As a following work of the RELM, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) suggested by SCEC and proposed that different countries and regions should join the test process for different forecast models using rigorous evaluation methods and uniform earthquake data source. In China, the North-South Seismic Belt was suggested as the first testing center (CN-CSEP) in this phase of CSEP work (CSEP1.0). Now the CSEP1.0 has been developed into CSEP2.0 from 2018, and the test region of China has also changed to be the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES), which has been launched on May 12th, 2018 at the International Conference for the Decades Memory of the Wenchuan Earthquake. In order to make readers understand the working routine and principle for the research related to this international cooperation among different countries and regions, this text gives an outline and a systematically description for the principle and achievements of CSEP1.0 work in recent ten years, as well as the existing problems.

Key words: Collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP1.0), Regional earthquake likelihood models (RELM), Principle and achievements

CLC Number:

P315.7

ZHANG Sheng-feng, ZHANG Yong-xian. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability —Working Philosophy and Achievements of CSEP1.0[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(4): 203-217.

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Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability —Working Philosophy and Achievements of CSEP1.0

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