EARTHQUAKE ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 28-32.
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Zhang Chun, Lin Mingzhou
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Abstract: There have been more than ten years since the fuzzy mathematics methods was introduced into the earthquake prediction. Among the various results, this paper chose the fuzzy net, the grey fuzzy model, the fuzzy correlation between Japan oceanic trench and this region, the fuzzy tracing after the occurrence of a significant earthquake as the different key points of the preseismic long-, medium- and short-term prediction and the postseismic trend analysis which constituting the seismic fuzzy prediction method. Before and after the occurrence of east Estuary of Yangtze River Earthquake with Ms 6. 1 ,on Nov. 9, 1996, the predictions for every period were made by using the fuzzy methods and listed in the seismological consultation reports raised by Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality in recent years. The preseismic prediction and the postseismic tracing result are basically consistent with the actual situation. Therefore, we may consider this earthquake as a typical successful example for the earthquake prediction by using fuzzy methods.
Key words: Fuzzy mathematics, Earthquake prediction, Trend tracing, Fuzzy net, Grey fuzzy model, Fuzzy correlation
Zhang Chun, Lin Mingzhou. FUZZY PREDICTION AND FUZZY TRACING OF EAST ESTUARY OF YANGTZE RIVER EARTHQUAKE WITH M =6.1 ON NOV. 9, 1996[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 1998, 18(1): 28-32.
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https://dizhen.ief.ac.cn/EN/Y1998/V18/I1/28