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EARTHQUAKE ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 28-32.

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FUZZY PREDICTION AND FUZZY TRACING OF EAST ESTUARY OF YANGTZE RIVER EARTHQUAKE WITH M =6.1 ON NOV. 9, 1996

Zhang Chun, Lin Mingzhou   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:1997-04-01 Revised:1997-07-30 Online:1998-01-31 Published:2022-05-10

Abstract: There have been more than ten years since the fuzzy mathematics methods was intro­duced into the earthquake prediction. Among the various results, this paper chose the fuzzy net, the grey fuzzy model, the fuzzy correlation between Japan oceanic trench and this re­gion, the fuzzy tracing after the occurrence of a significant earthquake as the different key points of the preseismic long-, medium- and short-term prediction and the postseismic trend analysis which constituting the seismic fuzzy prediction method. Before and after the occurrence of east Estuary of Yangtze River Earthquake with Ms 6. 1 ,on Nov. 9, 1996, the predictions for every period were made by using the fuzzy methods and listed in the seismo­logical consultation reports raised by Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality in re­cent years. The preseismic prediction and the postseismic tracing result are basically con­sistent with the actual situation. Therefore, we may consider this earthquake as a typical successful example for the earthquake prediction by using fuzzy methods.

Key words: Fuzzy mathematics, Earthquake prediction, Trend tracing, Fuzzy net, Grey fuzzy model, Fuzzy correlation