前兆异常识别的χ2统计检验法及其应用①

Abstract

Abstract: A statistical precursory identification is introduced in the paper, according to hypothesis that the observed data during the genetic stage of a large earthquake are different in frequency distribution during the normal or non-genetic stage of earthquakes and can be obtained by χ²-test for the distribution of the data. Examples that show the relations between large earthquakes and the precursory anomalies of Radon data observed in Yunnan during 1994~1996 are also given in the paper.

Key words: Precursory anomaly, Radon, i²-test

Wang Xiaoqing, Shi Shaoxian, Ding Xiang. STATISTICAL PRECURSORY IDENTIFICATION AND APPLICATION BYχ²-TEST[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 1998, 18(3): 257-264.

References

1 张国民,傅征祥.华北大震的时间分布及其物理解释.地球物理学报, 1984, 28(6): 569~578.
2 张国民,张永仙,石耀霖.地震前兆复杂性的数字模拟研究.地震, 1994, (1): 2~11.
3 梅世蓉. 从华北地震活动的规则性看危险区划分的一个途径.地震战线.学术讨论专集. 1970. 1~11.
4 梅世蓉,朱岳清.唐山地震孕育模式研究.北京: 地震出版社. 1992.
5 梅世蓉. 地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布物理机制研究(一): 坚固体孕震模式的由来与证据.地震学报. 1995. 17(3): 273~282.
6 陆远忠,吕悦军,郑月君.强震孕育后期地震活动演化的定量表征.中国地震, 1994, 10(增刊): 33~38.
7 Habermann E R.The quantitative recognition and evalution of seismic quescence: Applications to earthquake prediction and subduction zone tectonics. PhD Thesis (University of Colorado, Boulder). 1981.
8 Habermann E R.Precursory seismic quiescence: Past present and future. PAGEO PH, 1988, 126(2~4): 279~332.
9 Matthews M V, Reasenberg P A.Statistical methods for investigation quiescence and other temporal seismicity patterns. PAGEOPH, 1988, 126(2~4): 357~372.
10 Reasenberg P A, Matthews M V.Precursory seismic quiescence: a preliminary assessment of the Hypothesis. PAGEOPH, 1988, 126(2~4): 373~406.
11 傅征祥. 1976年7月28日唐山大地震震源区的前兆地震活动平静.中国地震, 1991, 7(4): 12~21.
12 李志雄,高旭.地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用.地震, 1994, (6): 11~18.
13 王炜,刘震华.地震时间间隔的统计分析及其地震危险度D值在华北大震前的异常变化. 地震学报, 1987, 9(2): 113~127.
14 王炜,潘坚云,黄冰树.地震空间集中度C值及其在地震预报中的应用.见: 中国地震局科技监测司编. 地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专辑).北京: 学术期刊出版社, 1989, 127~141.
15 王炜,戴维乐,黄冰树.地震震级的统计分布及其地震强度因子Mf值在华北中强以上地震前的异常变化.中国地震, 1994, 10(3): 96~110.
16 Matsumura S.A one-parameter expression of seismicity pattern in space and time. Bull Seism Soc Am,1984, 74(6): 2559~2576.
17 17 王晓青.华北地震震源层结构构造与地壳结构构造的关系[硕士学位论文].北京: 中国地震局分析预报中心, 1987. 102.
18 庄昆元,王炜,黄冰树,等.地震预报专家系统.北京: 地震出版社, 1991.
19 朱岳清,梅世蓉主编.地震综合预报专家系统ESCEP.北京: 地震出版社, 1991.
20 朱岳清,张国民,邢如英,等. 地震短临预报专家系统ESESUP的设计与实现.地震, 1995, (增刊): 165~173.
21 王炜,吴耿锋,黄冰树,等.基于模糊神经网络和符号的地震预报专家系统NGESEP.中国地震, 1996, 12(4): 339~346.
22 Keilis-Borok V, Knopoff I, Rotwain L, et al.Intermediate-term prediction of occurrence time of strong earthquakes. Nature , 1988, 335. 690~694.
23 黄德瑜,朱元清.应用TSIP方法对1994年度地震趋势的预测.见: 国家地震局分析预报中心编.中国地震趋势预测研究(1994年度) .北京: 地震出版社, 1993, 183~187.
24 冯德益,林命周,顾瑾平,等.模糊地震学.北京: 地震出版社, 1992.
25 冯德益. 神经网络在地震研究中的应用.国际地震动态, 1993, (6): 1~5.
26 吕悦军,陆远忠.用算法复杂性分析时间序列.中国地震, 1993, 9: (3): 229~234.

[1]	WANG Yang-hong, SU He-jun, ZHANG Hui, LI Chen-hua, ZHOU Hui-ling. Application of Standard Annual Dynamic Curve Method in Radon Data Processing of Seismic Fluid Monitoring Station [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2023, 43(1): 171-184.
[2]	SU He-jun, CAO Ling-ling, ZHANG Hui, LI Chen-hua, ZHOU Hui-ling. The Method for Identify the Earthquake Precursor of Water RadonTaking the Water Radon Anomaly of Qingshui Hot Spring in Gansu Province As an Example [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2020, 40(4): 198-213.
[3]	ZHOU Hong-yan, REN Hong-wei, NING Hong-tao, HUANG Ren-gui, ZHAO Ying, YAO Yu-xia. Study on the Influence of Sampling Method on the Calibration Results of Emanometer Measured by Scintillation Chamber in Seismic Observation [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2020, 40(4): 191-197.
[4]	WANG Xi-long, WANG Hai-yan, FU Cong, Wang Song-yang, YANG Zhen-peng. Idendification of High Value Fluctuation Anomalies in Water Radon in Jinzhou Shenjia Site, Liaoning Province [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2019, 39(4): 158-171.
[5]	LI Li-bo, FU Hong, LI Qiong, HE De-qiang. Precursory Anomalies of Earthquake Weak Activity in Northeastern Yunnan [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2019, 39(3): 115-126.
[6]	HUANG Ren-gui, ZHAO Ying, LI Yu-ze, WANG Shi-xian, LUO Qi-bin, XIAO Jian. Preliminary Study on the Traceability of the Observation and Measurement of Radon for Earthquake Monitoring [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2019, 39(2): 183-190.
[7]	ZHANG Xiao-tao, LIU Jie, SONG Zhi-ping, XUE Yan, ZHANG Yong-xian, YAN Rui, YUAN Zheng-yi. Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Precursory Anomalies of the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake and Mechanical Analysis [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(2): 72-83.
[8]	WANG Yi-xi, LI He, WANG Bo, YANG Peng-tao, WANG Jun, XIANG Yang, WANG Xi-long, LI Yue. Critical Slow Down Phenomena of Radon Concentrations before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 Earthquake [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(1): 128-138.
[9]	DAI Yong,FENG Zhi-sheng,YANG Yan-ming,LIANG Ying,GE Gen. Spatial Correlation Anomalies of Geomagnetic Vertical Component Diurnal Variation before Yingjiang M6.1 and Ludian M6.5 Earthquakes [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(3): 138-147.
[10]	CAO Jian-ling, JIA Xiao-dong, LI La-yue, CHANG Liu. A Review of Precursory Anomalies of Cross-fault Observation in North China [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2016, 36(4): 61-75.
[11]	REN Hong-wei, YAO Yu-xia, HUANG Ren-gui, CHEN Lan-qing, WANG Gui-qing. A New Calibration Method of Emanometer in Earthquake Monitoring [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2016, 36(3): 46-54.
[12]	HE Kang, YAN Rui, WANG Chun, ZHENG Hai-gang, LI Jun-hui, FANG Zhen. Extracting Geomagnetic Precursory Anomaly based on Wigner-Ville Distribution and Application in the Sichuan- Yunnan Region [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2014, 34(4): 88-99.
[13]	Cao Feng-juan, JIAO Ming-ruo, WANG Hai-yan, ZHAI Li-na, YIN De-lu. Spatial Centrality and Inhomogeneity of Precursory Anomalies in Liaoning region, China [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2013, 33(1): 127-140.
[14]	ZHANG Feng-shuang, WU Yan-qiang, SUN Dong-ying. Analysis of the Baseline Time Series from Continuous GPS Stations in the Mainland of China [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(4): 86-97.
[15]	LI Gang, LIU Jie, WANG Bo, GUO Tie-shuan, ZHANG Yong-xian, ZHOU Long-quan. Retrospection on the Conclusions from Earthquake Tendency Forecasts before the 2010 Yushu M7.1 Earthquake [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(3): 64-76.

STATISTICAL PRECURSORY IDENTIFICATION AND APPLICATION BYχ²-TEST

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

STATISTICAL PRECURSORY IDENTIFICATION AND APPLICATION BYχ2-TEST

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

STATISTICAL PRECURSORY IDENTIFICATION AND APPLICATION BYχ²-TEST