Abstract: Earthquake recurrence model in middle Bohai Sea and Jiaoliao Haixia is analyzed based on history earthquake data. The conclusion is that the time predictable model is closer to the time sequence characteristics than slip predictable model. According to time predictable model, it is concluded that the next strong earthquake may occur in the early period of 21st century in Jiaoliao Haixia. Slip predictable model can be applied in middle Bohai Sea. This increases the uncertainty of occurrence time of earthquakes in middle Bohai Sea, and it is unfavorable for long term earthquake prediction there. The main factors which affects the accuracy of long term prediction is the reliability of the history earthquake magnitude, it affects the establishment of reoccurrence model directly.

Key words: Risk, Earthqauke recurrence, Bohai sea