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EARTHQUAKE ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 319-324.

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CONFIDENCE LEVEL SYNTHESIS OF EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR ANOMALIES

Chen Shaoxu, Jiang Chutihua, Zhang Qingrong, Wang Qincai, Zhang Yuegang   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:1998-02-18 Revised:1998-04-10 Published:2022-09-23

Abstract: In this paper, the confidence level of seismic precursor anomalies is synthesized with time for Hebei region and adjacent area from 1980~1997,and the results correspond very well to Ms≥5 earthquake in the region. The confidence level of precursor anomalies is considered as the function of time and distance,a time and space dynamic model of confidence level synthesis of the seismic precursors is established. We tested the model with Ms≥5 earthquake (not including after shocks) in Hebei region and its adjacent area, and see that all the events occurred in the high value region of synthesized confidence level. We tested the model with M = 6.0 earthquake occurred in Liyang of Jiangsu Province on July 9, 1979,and M=6.3 earthquake occurred in Luquan of Yunnan Province on April 18, 1985, and got good results also.

Key words: Earthquake precursor anomalies, Confidence level synthesis, Test