基于Molchan图表法的新疆流体资料预报效能检验

Abstract

Abstract: Molchan diagram method can not only evaluate the prediction efficiency of the observation data, but also quantitatively analyze the anomalies in data to obtain the anomaly identification index corresponding to the optimal threshold value. Based on three groups of representative data, new hydrogen raw data in Xin04 spring, water radon trend data in Xin10 spring and gas radon difference data in Xin43 spring, we introduced how to use the Molchan diagram method to analyze the prediction efficiency of observation data. Then, we analyzed the prediction efficiency of the fluid data with better efficiency in Xinjiang, and the earthquake prediction indexes were extracted. The results show that the earthquake prediction efficiency of fluid data in Xinjiang is different for different tectonic zones. The data of observation point distributed around Urumqi and North of Tianshan have better prediction efficiency for those earthquakes occurred in North Tianshan, and most of the data correspond to the short period predicted time, which indicates that the data could be used for the short-term earthquake prediction.

Key words: Earthquake prediction efficiency, Underground fluid, Molchan diagram method, Xinjiang region

CLC Number:

P315.7

XIANG Yang, SUN Xiao-long, WANG Bo. Earthquake Prediction Efficiency Testing of Observed Fluid Data in Xinjiang using Molchan Diagram Method[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(3): 103-114.

References

[1] 刘桂萍. 关于我国地震预测预报发展的几点思考[J]. 地震, 2010, 30(1): 1-9.
[2] 吴忠良, 蒋长胜. 统计预测、经验预测、物理预测[J]. 中国地震, 2007, 23(3): 211- 224.
[3] 马宏生, 刘杰, 吴昊. 基于R值评分的年度地震预测能力评价[J]. 地震, 2004, 24(2): 31-37.
[4] 梅世蓉, 冯德益, 张国民, 等. 中国地震预报概论[M]. 北京:地震出版社, 1993.
[5] 孙丽娜, 齐玉妍, 温超, 等. 中长期地震预测中的PI算法改进研究及应用[J]. 地震, 2012, 30(1): 1-9.
[6] 蒋长胜, 赵伟拮. 地震可预测性研究的CSEP计划及其启示[J]. 刊名？？？, 2009, 30(5): 34-41.
[7] 蒋长胜, 吴忠良. 对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J]. 中国科学: D辑, 2008, 38(7): 852-861.
[8] 庄建仓, 蒋长胜. 用博弈评分法评估分析中国年度地震危险区的预测效能[J]. 地球物理学报, 2012, 55(5): 1695-1709.
[9] 蒋长胜, 张浪平, 韩立波, 等. 中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法I: Molchan图表法[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(2): 106-113.
[10] Wang T, Jiancang Z, Teruyuki K, et al. Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2013, 40.
[11] 杨又陵, 高国英, 温和平, 等. 新疆地震前兆异常特征研究[J]. 地震, 2005, 25(1): 89-96.
[12] 王道. 新疆及边邻地区7级以上地震前后北天山地下流体动态的异常变化[J]. 内陆地震, 2004, 18(1): 45-55.
[13] 高小其, 陈华静, 高国英, 等. 新疆地下流体源兆、场兆、大震远兆特征的统计与分析[J]. 地震, 2006, 26(2): 83-94.
[14] Molchan G M. Strategies in strong earthquake prediction[J]. Phys Earth Plane Inter, 1990, 61(1-2): 84-98.
[15] Zechar J D, Jordan T H. Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions[ J] . Geophys J Int, 2008, 172 :715-724.
[16] Molchan G M. Structure of optimal strategies of earthquake prediction[J]. Tectonophysics, 1991, 193: 267-276.
[17] 曲延军, 王海涛, 沈军. 天山地震带强震活动特征[J]. 内陆地震, 2008, 22(4): 289-298.
[18] 高小其, 许秋龙, 李艳萍, 等. 乌鲁木齐10号泉流量的映震分析[J]. 地震研究, 2001, 24(3): 233-237.
[19] Jackson D D. Earthquake prediction and forecasting[M]. In: IUGG, eds State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges. Washington DC: AGU, 2004, 225-348.
[20] 蒋长胜, 吴忠良, 马宏生, 等. PI算法用于川滇—安达曼—苏门答腊地区7.0级以上强震危险性预测的回溯性检验[J]. 地震学报, 2009, 31(3): 307-318 .
[21] Rundle J B, Klein W, Turcotte D L, et al. Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena[J]. Pure appl Geophys, 2000, 157: 2165-2182.
[22] Garavaglia E, Guagenti E, Pavani R, et al. Renewal models for earthquake predictability[J]. Journal of Seismology, 2010, 14: 79-93.
[23] Jordan T H. Earthquake predictability, brick by brick[J]. Seism Res Lett, 2006, 77(1): 3-610.
[24] 朱令人, 朱成熹, 洪时中, 等. 地震预报效能评价.∥国家地震局科技监测司. 中国地震预报方法研究. 北京: 地震出版社, 1991, 35-45.
[25] 郑兆苾, 刘杰, 李罡风, 等. 全国年度地震重点危险区与地震相关性的统计模拟分析[J]. 地震学报, 2000, 22(5): 538-546.
[26] 张国民, 刘杰, 石耀霖. 年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J]. 地震学报, 2002, 24: 525-532.
[27] 朱令人, 洪时中, 陈祺福, 等. 一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法—中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一[J]. 地震, 2003, 23(2): 1-11.

Earthquake Prediction Efficiency Testing of Observed Fluid Data in Xinjiang using Molchan Diagram Method

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	MIAO A-li, LI Feng, WANG Jun, ZHU Tao, YE Bi-wen. Typical Underground Fluid Anomalies of the Wuwei, Anhui M_L4.1 Earthquake Occurred in 2018 [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(4): 192-202.
[2]	WANG Xi-long, JIA Xiao-dong, QIAN Rui, FU Cong. Analysis on Anomalous Characteristics and Earthquake Prediction Efficiency of High-frequency Information from Digital Water Level and Water Temperature before 2013 Lushan M7.0 Earthquake in the North-South Seismic Belt of China [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2020, 40(2): 100-116.
[3]	ZHANG Lin-lin, TANG Lan-lan. Influence of Five M_S7.0 earthquakes on Small Earthquake Activities in Xinjiang and its Surrounding Areas [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(4): 159-171.
[4]	MIAO A-li,WANG Jun,YE Bi-wen,WANG Wei,SHEN Hong-hui,ZHANG Yi. Typical Underground Fluid Anomalies before the 2011 Anqing M_S4.8 Earthquake and Mechanism Discussion [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(3): 180-189.
[5]	CHE Yong-tai,HE An-hua,FENG En-guo,MA Yu-chuan. On Optimizing and Upgrading of Fluid Observation Networkbased on Two Typical Earthquake Cases [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(1): 134-147.
[6]	SHAO Yong-xin, WANG Jun-guo. The scientific practice of the short-term prediction of Wen'an M5.1 earthquake on July 4, 2006 [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2008, 28(2): 108-114.
[7]	GAO Xiao-qi, CHEN Hua-jing, GAO Guo-ying, XU Qiu-long, CUI Yong. Statistics and analysis on characteristics of focal precursors, field precursors and remote precursors of ground fluid for great earthquakes in Xinjiang region [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2006, 26(2): 83-94.
[8]	XU Qiu-long, CHEN Hua-jing. On several technical problems during digitization trans- formation of the underground fluid stations [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2006, 26(1): 107-114.
[9]	LI Zhi-hai, WANG Hai-tao, ZHU Cheng-ying. Characteristic study on the significant earthquake before strong earthquake based on CH method in Xinjiang [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2005, 25(4): 93-97.
[10]	LI Fu, LI Ke, LIU Jun-qing. Research on anomalous characteristics in underground fluid before deep source earthquake [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2005, 25(2): 98-107.
[11]	SONG Xiao-bing, LI Hai-Xiao, ZHANG Chang-hui, CHE Yong-tai, LIU Cheng-long, LIU Wu-zhou. Influence of exploitation of hot water well on fluid dynamics in Huailai station [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2004, 24(2): 73-80.
[12]	ZHU Zi-qiang, ZHANG Li, WANG Shi-qing, GUAN Zhi-jun, LI Jun. The anomalous changes of underground fluid in the Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces around occurrence of the earthquakes of Shidian and Yongsheng [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2004, 24(1): 119-125.
[13]	LIU Chun-guo, GU Yuan-zhu, ZHAO Hong-li, WANG Guang-cai, CHE Yong-tai. Development of quality monitoring system for observational database of underground fluid [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2002, 22(4): 74-80.
[14]	ZHU Zi-quiang, CHEN Hua-jing, ZHENG Da-lin, CHE Yong-tai, LI Yong-lin. Preliminary discussion on the function of gas in the underground fluid macroscopicanomalies [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2002, 22(4): 67-73.
[15]	GAO An-tai, YANG Duo-xing, LIU Yao-wei. Summarization of advance in study of influence of deep fluidon shallow fluid in the seismogenic process [J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2002, 22(4): 24-29.