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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 37-49.

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LURR Anomaly, Prediction and Tracking of Large Earthquakes in the Pan-southwestern Region

YIN Xiang-chu1,2,LIU Yue1,ZHANG lang-ping1, LI Wen-jun1,YUAN Shuai4,ZHANG Xiao-tao3   

  1. 1.Institute of Earthquake forecasting, CEA, Beijing 100036, China;
    2.State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
    3.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;
    4.Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Changan University, Xi’an 710064, China
  • Received:2016-10-19 Published:2019-08-09

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Abstract: At the beginning of the 21st century, a large scale of LURR anomaly emerged in Southwestern China and its surrounding area (called “Pan south-western” in this paper). The ensuing continuous study showed that this anomaly was not only degrading, but intensifying (increasing of seismogenic integral). According to the evolution of LURR anomaly, we first pointed out that a “super-large earthquake” was preparing in the region at a meeting in 2008. The tracking study showed the seismogenic integral of LURR, denoted as It, was peaked in July, 2012. According to the improved method obtained by LURR combining with dimensional analysis, we predicted that an earthquake of M>8 would occur in the “Pan south-western China” during the time of July 2015 minus or plus 25 months, and the prediction was reported at two meetings in 2014. The 25th April 2015 Nepal MS8.1 earthquake occurred in the range of the prediction. After the strong event, the degree of LURR anomaly in the “Pan south-western China” was increasing instead of dropping. It has reached a new high value, which is greater than the peak value before the Nepal MS8.1. It implies that the region is probably about to face a very serious earthquake risk.

Key words: Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR), Earthquake Prediction ang tracking, The “Pan- Southwestern China

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