面向地震风险评估的中国大陆区县级人口总量时空预测方法研究

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the historical population data on the scale of county in mainland China, two kinds of time series of historical total population and growth rate of population were studied. The fitting models such as logistic, exponential, logarithmic and linear models were comprehensively used, good accuracy of the fitting have been obtained. It is proved that the reliable total population projection can be achieved for each counties of mainland China. Population projection in 2020 has been taken as an example, the spatial pattern of population distribution in 2010 and 2020 were quantitatively analyzed, and the changes of population size in each county of China main in 2010 to 2020 are illustrated in detail. It shows that the spatial distribution of population in future has been accurately expressed. Thus, it can provide reliable population data on spatial and temporal distribution for the future prediction of earthquake risk assessment.

Key words: Population projection, Spatial distribution of population, Earthquake risk assessment

CLC Number:

P315.9

DING Ling,WANG Xiao-qing,WANG Shu-min, DOU Ai-xia,YUAN Xiao-xiang,DING Xiang. Spatio-temporal Projection of China Mainland Population on County Scale Oriented to Earthquake Risk Assessment[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(4): 58-68.

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Spatio-temporal Projection of China Mainland Population on County Scale Oriented to Earthquake Risk Assessment

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