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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 134-143.

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Evaluation of the Forecast Effectiveness of Seismic Strip in Eastern China

TANG Lan-rong,LU Jian,ZENG Xin-fu   

  1. Earthquake Administration of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330039, China
  • Received:2016-09-29 Published:2019-08-09

Abstract: In this paper, forecast effectiveness of seismic strip was evaluated in Eastern China since 1970. The results show that accurate rate of ML≥3.0 earthquake strip is 0.33, inflating rate is 0.67, missing rate is 0.71, R value is 0.20. The values of ML≥3.5 earthquakes are 0.40, 0.60, 0.81 and 0.12 respectively. ML≥4.0 earthquakes are 0.71, 0.29, 0.76 and 0.18 respectively. R value is equal to or higher than R0 value of 97.5% confidence level, and it has certain forecast capability. Mainshocks generally occur in the year after abnormal end, most of them are located in the strip and the margin, and the direction is NE or NNE-trending. The greater the magnitude lower limit of seismic strip, the longer the average duration. The strips are mainly distributed in Jiangsu and adjacent sea areas, northern Jiangxi and its periphery.

Key words: Forecast effectiveness evaluation, Moderate-strong earthquakes, Seismic strip, Eastern China

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