Abstract: Prediction index system model of medium-strong earthquakes in south Tianshan was established using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on better predictors reflecting the earthquake in South Tianshan. On this basis, we built the judgment matrix with 1~9 ratio scale and then calculated the weight of each index. The results indicate that the top three weight indicators of better predictors reflecting the earthquake were deformation anomalies and part of seismometry parameters of short-term prediction indicators. The analytic hierarchy process model also provided that comprehensive predication index Y with medium-strong earthquakes in South Tianshan, Y value can better reflect strong or weak earthquake precursors and abnormal reliability in South Tianshan. When the value of Y is no less than 2.91, medium-strong earthquakes will likely occur in South Tianshan of Xinjiang in the short-term.

Key words: Analytic hierarchy, Prediction indicator, Judgment matrix, South Tianshan