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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 89-97.

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Application of Load/Unload Response Ratio Seismogenic Integral in Earthquake Prediction in Xinjiang

LIU Jian-ming1, LIU Yue2, TANG Lan-lan1, LI Zhi-hai1 WEN Shao-yan1, ZHANG Lin-lin1, LUO Ju1   

  1. 1. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
  • Published:2020-07-14

Abstract: Firstly, testing on the four earthquake cases (MS≥6.0) from 2001 to 2012 occurred successively in the western part of southern Tianshan mountain and Kashi-Wuqia area of Xinjiang for using the Load/Unload Response Ratio Seismogenic Integral. The results showed that the seismogenic integral fluctuated around the background change smoothlyin early seismogenic stage. With the intensification of stress and seismogenic integral increasing to the peak point,earthquakes occured during the rapid decline or after the resumption. Then, weapply the Load/Unload Response Ratio Seismogenic Integralto the fixed site deformation data. Contrasting and analyzing the Load/Unload Response Ratio Seismogenic Integral with 250 km radius surrounding Machang, Halajun, Wuqia and Kashi stations in the western part of southern Tianshan mountain, as well as the sequence chart of Seismogenic Integral on the affiliated stations. The result indicated that (1) the tectonic stress field in Machang, Halajun and Wuqia station region is in a process of continuous load currently, which gives rise to the huge and unsteady change in the datum rate of fixed-point deformation; (2) the measurement rate direction of precursory permanent deformation changes when the stress on tectonic stress field is in constant load slowly, their manifestations are trend anomaly; (3) Currently, the tectonic stress field stress level regions in the western part of the southern Tianshan isthe process of continuous loading.

Key words: Load/Unload Response Ratio, SeismogenicIntegral, Tectonic stress field, Stress load, Fixed site deformation

CLC Number: