Abstract: Based on statistic data of casualties reported after 8 earthquakes at home and a broad,modified exponential curve,Gompertz curve, Logistic curve are used to estimate casualties due to earthquakes. The results of comparative analysis show that all the three models are suitable for estimation of casualties reported due to earthquakes; it has practi-cal value in practical applications to use the fitting precisions after eliminated the first two fitted values as prediction error. The fitting analysis based on the data of casualties repor ted by 3 earthquakes in China indicates that the three models can be combined to forecast the final casualties due to earthquakes, mainly using one model which has small relative error and the other two as reference.

Key words: Earthquake casualties, Report time, Exponential curve, Gompertz curve, Logistic curve