断层的大地震复发概率研究

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time and earthquake preparation process, the probabilities of strong earthquake recurrence have been calculated for major active faults in mainland China for different time spans, and the seismic risk on each fault is studied. Results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault, Altyn Tagh fault, East Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are obviously bigger than other faults in the mainland, these faults are experiencing high-level states of stress accumulation, and may have high seismic risks of strong earthquake recurrences in the future.

Key words: Brownian passage time model, Conditional probability, Earthquake recurrence, Mainland China

CLC Number:

P315.7

ZHU Yuan-qing, XIE Chao-di, SONG Xiu-qing, QIN Hao-wen. A Study of the Recurrence Probability of Strong Earthquake on Faults in Mainland China[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2013, 33(4): 1-10.

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A Study of the Recurrence Probability of Strong Earthquake on Faults in Mainland China

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